US Stocks | Intraday Fast Report | August 28
【Shennong Notes - Intraday Fast Report】 22:33 Beijing Time | 22:33 US Eastern Time (10:33)
### Three Major Indexes
S&P 500: 7730.91 (-0.00%) Virtually flat and moving sideways
Dow Jones: 53554.25 (-0.03%) Slightly in the red, near flat
Nasdaq: 26525.68 (-0.06%) Slightly down
After a pre-market spike, prices pulled back; the whole market has entered a waiting-for-Warsh mode. At 10:00 ET, Fed Chair Warch will deliver his first major speech at Jackson Hole; the market is already in a cautious state, and VIX is only 14.59.
### Intraday Movers
- PayPal (PYPL) tumbles -11% pre-market: The Advent and Stripe consortium abandons $50B acquisition talks. PYPL briefly drops more than 15% to $52.5, and the valuation premium evaporates instantly.
- Salesforce (CRM) continues up +2.68%: Earnings guidance beats expectations and has been raised; the residual heat is still there. Up 23.8% over the past 5 days, with the software sector leading to keep the board steady today.
- Mega-cap tech diverges: Microsoft +1.20% / Amazon +1.86% / Meta +0.81% rebounds; NVDA -1.48% is pressured by profit-taking ahead of its earnings report; SOXX semiconductor -1.12%.
- Crypto-related stocks plunge together: MARA -5.86% / RIOT -5.75% / COIN -3.71% / MSTR -3.56%; BTC breaks below 79,000, dragging down miners the hardest.
- Defensive capital returns: Biotech XBI -2.37% / small caps IWM -0.68%, while consumer sector XLY +0.66%.
### Flows
At the open: S&P opens slightly higher; the market expects a dovish signal from Warsh.
Now: Trading volume returns to normal levels; buying interest is clearly narrowing as investors wait for policy developments to land.
Sector rotation: Within tech, leadership shifts from NVDA to CRM/MSFT; Financials XLF +0.29% benefits from expectations of higher interest rates.
### Real-Time Crypto Reaction
BTC 79033 (-1.06%) Today’s low 78400
ETH 2493 (-0.48%) Pullback to 2461 support
SOL 104.9 (-1.18%)
Weak correlation with US stocks all day; BTC shows an independent drifting-lower pattern—this appears to be a technical pullback on its own.
### Breaking Interpretation
1. PYPL’s plunge: Fundamentally, the option-like asset disappears. With no premium left, PYPL can only revert to an endogenous-growth valuation. Reminder— in a tighter-liquidity environment, leveraged acquisitions are hard to push through; several deals have already fallen through this week.
2. NVDA’s after-hours earnings tonight: Some people are already front-running pre-market, betting on upside guidance surprises. If the Networking segment maintains 200% growth, the AI compute chain could spark another wave; if it only meets expectations, today’s -1.12% in SOXX may just be the beginning.
### Close Forecast
Expect flat to slightly pressured. Before Warsh’s remarks, no big money will dare to place heavy bets.
Most likely scenario: A narrow range all day, with the S&P closing -0.2% to +0.1%, and volume shrinking.
Unless the PYPL crash sentiment spills over (currently unlikely), or Warsh suddenly turns hawkish intraday (10% probability).
### Overnight Impact on Crypto
Slightly bearish to neutral.
- If Warsh is hawkish (DXY strengthens, US Treasury yields jump): BTC directly breaks 78,000, with strong support at 75,000 below.
- If Warsh is dovish: BTC rebounds short-term to 80,000–81,000, but volume determines the ceiling.
- If it’s ambiguous (highest probability): BTC continues to range around 79,000, while ETH can’t move much lower.
Positioning advice: Reduce leverage on BTC/ETH contracts tonight, and act after Warsh’s remarks land and the double catalyst of NVDA’s earnings is realized.
【Shennong Notes - Intraday Fast Report】 22:33 Beijing Time | 22:33 US Eastern Time (10:33)
### Three Major Indexes
S&P 500: 7730.91 (-0.00%) Virtually flat and moving sideways
Dow Jones: 53554.25 (-0.03%) Slightly in the red, near flat
Nasdaq: 26525.68 (-0.06%) Slightly down
After a pre-market spike, prices pulled back; the whole market has entered a waiting-for-Warsh mode. At 10:00 ET, Fed Chair Warch will deliver his first major speech at Jackson Hole; the market is already in a cautious state, and VIX is only 14.59.
### Intraday Movers
- PayPal (PYPL) tumbles -11% pre-market: The Advent and Stripe consortium abandons $50B acquisition talks. PYPL briefly drops more than 15% to $52.5, and the valuation premium evaporates instantly.
- Salesforce (CRM) continues up +2.68%: Earnings guidance beats expectations and has been raised; the residual heat is still there. Up 23.8% over the past 5 days, with the software sector leading to keep the board steady today.
- Mega-cap tech diverges: Microsoft +1.20% / Amazon +1.86% / Meta +0.81% rebounds; NVDA -1.48% is pressured by profit-taking ahead of its earnings report; SOXX semiconductor -1.12%.
- Crypto-related stocks plunge together: MARA -5.86% / RIOT -5.75% / COIN -3.71% / MSTR -3.56%; BTC breaks below 79,000, dragging down miners the hardest.
- Defensive capital returns: Biotech XBI -2.37% / small caps IWM -0.68%, while consumer sector XLY +0.66%.
### Flows
At the open: S&P opens slightly higher; the market expects a dovish signal from Warsh.
Now: Trading volume returns to normal levels; buying interest is clearly narrowing as investors wait for policy developments to land.
Sector rotation: Within tech, leadership shifts from NVDA to CRM/MSFT; Financials XLF +0.29% benefits from expectations of higher interest rates.
### Real-Time Crypto Reaction
BTC 79033 (-1.06%) Today’s low 78400
ETH 2493 (-0.48%) Pullback to 2461 support
SOL 104.9 (-1.18%)
Weak correlation with US stocks all day; BTC shows an independent drifting-lower pattern—this appears to be a technical pullback on its own.
### Breaking Interpretation
1. PYPL’s plunge: Fundamentally, the option-like asset disappears. With no premium left, PYPL can only revert to an endogenous-growth valuation. Reminder— in a tighter-liquidity environment, leveraged acquisitions are hard to push through; several deals have already fallen through this week.
2. NVDA’s after-hours earnings tonight: Some people are already front-running pre-market, betting on upside guidance surprises. If the Networking segment maintains 200% growth, the AI compute chain could spark another wave; if it only meets expectations, today’s -1.12% in SOXX may just be the beginning.
### Close Forecast
Expect flat to slightly pressured. Before Warsh’s remarks, no big money will dare to place heavy bets.
Most likely scenario: A narrow range all day, with the S&P closing -0.2% to +0.1%, and volume shrinking.
Unless the PYPL crash sentiment spills over (currently unlikely), or Warsh suddenly turns hawkish intraday (10% probability).
### Overnight Impact on Crypto
Slightly bearish to neutral.
- If Warsh is hawkish (DXY strengthens, US Treasury yields jump): BTC directly breaks 78,000, with strong support at 75,000 below.
- If Warsh is dovish: BTC rebounds short-term to 80,000–81,000, but volume determines the ceiling.
- If it’s ambiguous (highest probability): BTC continues to range around 79,000, while ETH can’t move much lower.
Positioning advice: Reduce leverage on BTC/ETH contracts tonight, and act after Warsh’s remarks land and the double catalyst of NVDA’s earnings is realized.