$BMT This 15-minute candle is interesting. A 1.51% move doesn’t look that extreme, but volume surged to directly 3.24 times the usual level, and OI is contracting in sync—classic long_unwind script. The longs are pulling out their own ladder; it’s not the kind of waterfall caused by shorts, but the damage is still not small.
Contract open interest dropped 3.3% over 15 minutes, and on the one-hour scale it shrank 4.32%. Notional value is down by 340k U. The share of active sell pressure climbed to over 17%, the buy/sell ratio is 0.71—this sell-off and stampede when getting off is pretty much confirmed. The pool’s abnormality rank is in the top 10, and it’s been maintained in this state for several consecutive cycles, not just a one-off pulse.
If you want to talk about a rebound, first check whether the sell pressure has actually stopped. In this kind of deleveraging market, the worst scenario is longs still haven’t fully exited but are already rushing back in. Wait until OI stabilizes before talking about bottom-picking—don’t race ahead of people who are forced to close positions.
Contract open interest dropped 3.3% over 15 minutes, and on the one-hour scale it shrank 4.32%. Notional value is down by 340k U. The share of active sell pressure climbed to over 17%, the buy/sell ratio is 0.71—this sell-off and stampede when getting off is pretty much confirmed. The pool’s abnormality rank is in the top 10, and it’s been maintained in this state for several consecutive cycles, not just a one-off pulse.
If you want to talk about a rebound, first check whether the sell pressure has actually stopped. In this kind of deleveraging market, the worst scenario is longs still haven’t fully exited but are already rushing back in. Wait until OI stabilizes before talking about bottom-picking—don’t race ahead of people who are forced to close positions.
