ZEC: In one week it went from 565 to 889, up 38.67%, and now it has backed down to 789. It only looks like an 11% pullback, but what I’m reading isn’t a washout—I’m seeing the starting point of a资金（capital） withdrawal. Over the past three hours, there have been 12 spot candlesticks; none of them had a net inflow that was positive—real bid support has effectively run out.
The truly dangerous part is leverage. In the last 12 hours, the leverage lending ratio surged 25 times. The spot long/short leverage ratio has piled up to 83:1. The longs have filled their leverage, but the money that was taking the spot is gone. The derivatives side is also showing cracks in sync: the funding rate collapsed to the lowest at the eighth sampling, futures are trading at a 0.22% discount (backwardation), and active sell pressure accounts for 55.6%.
Open interest shrank by 1.6% in a day. While the price fell, so did the positions—classic bear capitulation. This isn’t new shorts coming in to press the market; it’s leveraged longs themselves conceding. To be direct: if you short ZEC, the first target is the 3-day low at 751. If that level can’t hold, there won’t be much decent support below.
The only signal that things have changed is this: spot net inflow turns positive, and open interest—along with price—breaks back above 824 on increased volume. That would mean fresh money has entered, and I’ll exit immediately. Before that, the shorts hold the initiative. #zec $ZEC
The truly dangerous part is leverage. In the last 12 hours, the leverage lending ratio surged 25 times. The spot long/short leverage ratio has piled up to 83:1. The longs have filled their leverage, but the money that was taking the spot is gone. The derivatives side is also showing cracks in sync: the funding rate collapsed to the lowest at the eighth sampling, futures are trading at a 0.22% discount (backwardation), and active sell pressure accounts for 55.6%.
Open interest shrank by 1.6% in a day. While the price fell, so did the positions—classic bear capitulation. This isn’t new shorts coming in to press the market; it’s leveraged longs themselves conceding. To be direct: if you short ZEC, the first target is the 3-day low at 751. If that level can’t hold, there won’t be much decent support below.
The only signal that things have changed is this: spot net inflow turns positive, and open interest—along with price—breaks back above 824 on increased volume. That would mean fresh money has entered, and I’ll exit immediately. Before that, the shorts hold the initiative. #zec $ZEC
