September rate hike probability has surged to 50%.
Just now, when the Federal Reserve Chair, Wash, said a few words, the market immediately went into chaos.
What did he say?
First, the Fed needs to provide a “clear market signal”—meaning stop letting the market guess back and forth; we’re going to do it for real.
Second, the 2% PCE target is “firm and fixed”—pay attention to these two words. It’s not “flexible,” not “average,” but “fixed.”
The moment he finished speaking, market bets on a rate hike heated up right away. The probability of a rate hike in September is now nearing 50%.
What does 50% mean? It’s like flipping a coin. Whether it goes up or down is all down to luck.
So is Wash tough? On the one hand, he admits “high inflation is harmful to the economy,” and on the other he says “the 2% target won’t budge.” The subtext is clear: even if the economy feels uncomfortable, I still have to crush inflation.
So the question is—if they really raise rates again, what happens to US stocks? What happens to US Treasuries? What happens to risk assets?
In the short term, it’s definitely about draining liquidity, compressing valuations, and killing expectations. But if you zoom out a bit: the more “hawkish” Wash is, the more it suggests the underlying injury to the fiat currency system is worsening. Maintaining purchasing power by constantly raising rates only shows how fragile the system is.
Each time rate-hike expectations heat up, it’s a reminder: the paper money in your hand will never beat inflation. And what about Bitcoin? Over there, the ETFs are still seeing continuous inflows, with $1.1 billion being used to accumulate.
One side is the Fed slamming the brakes as hard as it can, and the other is smart money rushing on board.
$BTC
$ETH
$QQQ
Which side are you on?
Just now, when the Federal Reserve Chair, Wash, said a few words, the market immediately went into chaos.
What did he say?
First, the Fed needs to provide a “clear market signal”—meaning stop letting the market guess back and forth; we’re going to do it for real.
Second, the 2% PCE target is “firm and fixed”—pay attention to these two words. It’s not “flexible,” not “average,” but “fixed.”
The moment he finished speaking, market bets on a rate hike heated up right away. The probability of a rate hike in September is now nearing 50%.
What does 50% mean? It’s like flipping a coin. Whether it goes up or down is all down to luck.
So is Wash tough? On the one hand, he admits “high inflation is harmful to the economy,” and on the other he says “the 2% target won’t budge.” The subtext is clear: even if the economy feels uncomfortable, I still have to crush inflation.
So the question is—if they really raise rates again, what happens to US stocks? What happens to US Treasuries? What happens to risk assets?
In the short term, it’s definitely about draining liquidity, compressing valuations, and killing expectations. But if you zoom out a bit: the more “hawkish” Wash is, the more it suggests the underlying injury to the fiat currency system is worsening. Maintaining purchasing power by constantly raising rates only shows how fragile the system is.
Each time rate-hike expectations heat up, it’s a reminder: the paper money in your hand will never beat inflation. And what about Bitcoin? Over there, the ETFs are still seeing continuous inflows, with $1.1 billion being used to accumulate.
One side is the Fed slamming the brakes as hard as it can, and the other is smart money rushing on board.
$BTC
$ETH
$QQQ
Which side are you on?
