$BTC is sitting at the most critical resistance level of this entire cycle — the 50-week moving average at $81,000. Historically, this line has been the dividing point between bull and bear markets across Bitcoin's entire existence.
This cycle saw a 54% drawdown, which is actually less severe than the 2018 and 2022 crashes. But here's the thing: the trend hasn't officially flipped yet. We're still technically in bear market territory until proven otherwise.
Technical indicators are starting to look promising. MACD, RSI, and Stoch RSI have all turned positive — early bullish signals. But these are just hints, not confirmation. The real test is whether $BTC can break and hold above that $81,000 level. Until that happens, what we're seeing is just a bounce within a broader bear structure.
Warsh is speaking at Jackson Hole today. Worth noting: after the last three meetings, Bitcoin rallied through September. Not saying history repeats, but the setup is interesting.
Bottom line: $81,000 is the line in the sand. Break and hold = bull market confirmed. Fail to hold = we're still in the woods.
This cycle saw a 54% drawdown, which is actually less severe than the 2018 and 2022 crashes. But here's the thing: the trend hasn't officially flipped yet. We're still technically in bear market territory until proven otherwise.
Technical indicators are starting to look promising. MACD, RSI, and Stoch RSI have all turned positive — early bullish signals. But these are just hints, not confirmation. The real test is whether $BTC can break and hold above that $81,000 level. Until that happens, what we're seeing is just a bounce within a broader bear structure.
Warsh is speaking at Jackson Hole today. Worth noting: after the last three meetings, Bitcoin rallied through September. Not saying history repeats, but the setup is interesting.
Bottom line: $81,000 is the line in the sand. Break and hold = bull market confirmed. Fail to hold = we're still in the woods.
