The one who moved first was 0x40f.
TradingBeats (crypto data monitoring) reported that Polymarket (prediction market) trader xm39’s associated address 0x40f yesterday liquidated 175,900 WTI crude oil long contracts, with a transaction value of about $14.253 million, resulting in a loss of $282,000. Yesterday he closed his longs; this morning he flipped and opened a short of nearly $10 million in crude oil.
Originally, he was placing two bets at once: an invasion of Iran by the U.S. before 2027, and a rise in crude oil. Now that crude has flipped to bearish, he has also cut the Polymarket position related to the Iran-invasion bet by 75%.
My guess is that he isn’t adjusting a specific price level—he’s canceling the entire “escalation of the war” trade.
Next, we’ll see whether 0x40f will continue adding to his shorts, and whether the remaining Iran position on Polymarket will be held or liquidated right away.
TradingBeats (crypto data monitoring) reported that Polymarket (prediction market) trader xm39’s associated address 0x40f yesterday liquidated 175,900 WTI crude oil long contracts, with a transaction value of about $14.253 million, resulting in a loss of $282,000. Yesterday he closed his longs; this morning he flipped and opened a short of nearly $10 million in crude oil.
Originally, he was placing two bets at once: an invasion of Iran by the U.S. before 2027, and a rise in crude oil. Now that crude has flipped to bearish, he has also cut the Polymarket position related to the Iran-invasion bet by 75%.
My guess is that he isn’t adjusting a specific price level—he’s canceling the entire “escalation of the war” trade.
Next, we’ll see whether 0x40f will continue adding to his shorts, and whether the remaining Iran position on Polymarket will be held or liquidated right away.