Capitulation, bearish risks... and a possible turning point
The current bearish movement, however, is not an isolated episode. For Gabe Selby, the market is completing a sequence that started months ago: "Bitcoin has completed the bearish sequence that began with the deleveraging event on October 10, 2025, and the recent market purge has once again tested, and even briefly pierced, the lows from Liberation Day in April 2025 around $74,000. This weekend's capitulation triggered massive liquidations of long positions in a context of mixed results from the Magnificent 7 and widespread risk aversion flows."
In this context, the market is at a particularly delicate technical point: "An aggressive and high-volume buying entry will be necessary to initiate a new bullish market structure sequence and reactivate upward momentum. If levels above the April lows are not sustained, bearish risks will remain below $70,000, although the setup suggests that Bitcoin's long-term floor may already be formed if buyers act decisively."
From Bitvavo, they describe the current environment as a textbook bear market. "In a bear market, prices fall, and investors expect further declines. It may sound vague, but it is a surprisingly useful definition, especially if you specify that price drop by observing the trend in the weekly chart."
The platform adds in its latest market analysis that, although nothing is certain, on-chain indicators reinforce the negative bias: "The MVRV (a widely used on-chain indicator in crypto to try to measure if the market is overvalued or undervalued) tends to slightly lead the price. It peaks earlier and also starts to fall earlier. That is exactly what we are seeing now. The MVRV is at its lowest level since October 2023, when the price was still at $25,000."
The current bearish movement, however, is not an isolated episode. For Gabe Selby, the market is completing a sequence that started months ago: "Bitcoin has completed the bearish sequence that began with the deleveraging event on October 10, 2025, and the recent market purge has once again tested, and even briefly pierced, the lows from Liberation Day in April 2025 around $74,000. This weekend's capitulation triggered massive liquidations of long positions in a context of mixed results from the Magnificent 7 and widespread risk aversion flows."
In this context, the market is at a particularly delicate technical point: "An aggressive and high-volume buying entry will be necessary to initiate a new bullish market structure sequence and reactivate upward momentum. If levels above the April lows are not sustained, bearish risks will remain below $70,000, although the setup suggests that Bitcoin's long-term floor may already be formed if buyers act decisively."
From Bitvavo, they describe the current environment as a textbook bear market. "In a bear market, prices fall, and investors expect further declines. It may sound vague, but it is a surprisingly useful definition, especially if you specify that price drop by observing the trend in the weekly chart."
The platform adds in its latest market analysis that, although nothing is certain, on-chain indicators reinforce the negative bias: "The MVRV (a widely used on-chain indicator in crypto to try to measure if the market is overvalued or undervalued) tends to slightly lead the price. It peaks earlier and also starts to fall earlier. That is exactly what we are seeing now. The MVRV is at its lowest level since October 2023, when the price was still at $25,000."