Bitcoin has now entered a critical phase after the recent decline that brought the price close to 70,000 USD. From a macro perspective, this movement has increased the risk of a price decline for BTC.
Several chain-related and technical indicators are now pointing towards a negative development. However, large owners are actively buying more and trying to halt or reverse the trend.
Bitcoin hits an important on-chain support
Bitcoin has fallen below its true market value for the first time since September 2023. This value shows the total average cost of the active asset. Trading below this level signals weaker confidence among market participants and indicates that the market has changed structure.
Losing this support confirms a deterioration that has grown since the end of November. In the medium term, Bitcoin is now constrained to a broader value range. The positive trend has weakened, while downward pressure becomes stronger over several different time periods.
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Downward, the realized price is around 55,800 USD, which is a historical level where long-term capital usually enters. Upward, the true market value around 80,200 USD has become a resistance. This makes it harder for the price to recover and increases the risk of new declines.
Bitcoin's macro forecast indicates a fall of 37%
This weakness aligns with a clear downward trend visible in the charts. Bitcoin is falling out of a head-and-shoulders formation that has developed over several months. If the entire formation breaks down, the price could drop by about 37% and reach 51,511 USD.
A sharp decline of 20% over the week has intensified the fall. Strong selling pressure has confirmed that the price has passed the support, which has strengthened the negative trend. Such movements often lead to continued declines as long positions are forced to exit.
The next important support below 70,000 USD is at 68,072 USD. If the price loses this level, it confirms the forecast. A clear fall below the support would likely increase the number of forced sales and make price movements faster and more volatile towards lower levels.
BTC whales step in to save
Despite more negative signals, Bitcoin whales are actively trying to stop further declines. Addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC have accumulated more than 50,000 BTC in just four days. At today's price, that corresponds to over 3.58 billion USD.
This indicates strategic positioning rather than mere speculation. Large holders often buy during periods of uncertainty, especially after sharp declines. When Bitcoin fell below 75,000 USD, long-term buyers saw a good opportunity to enter.
If whale purchases continue, it can absorb selling pressure and stabilize the price. Previously, this activity has preceded short recoveries. However, the effect over time depends on whether the overall market climate changes and if individuals stop selling.
The BTC price is close to falling below 70,000 USD
The Bitcoin price is currently near 69,500 USD after a decline of 20% this week. Currently, BTC has not yet closed a daily price below the psychological support at 70,000 USD. This level has acted as a buying zone during previous declines and is important for the price to remain stable in the short term.
In the short term, however, the risk of further declines is high. If the price falls below 68,442 USD, selling is likely to increase. In that case, Bitcoin could fall towards 65,360 USD. If that support disappears, BTC could plunge further down towards 62,893 USD.
One alternative is that whale purchases could influence the price direction. If Bitcoin manages to defend 70,000 USD, the price could rise towards 75,000 USD. If the price establishes 75,000 USD as support, the short-term negative scenario disappears. Thus, the path towards 80,000 USD could open again if momentum increases.
