#黄金8月上涨约14% ｜Those who say the gold bull market is over have been taught a lesson again this month
If you at the beginning of this month felt that gold has already stopped rising, then this August candlestick is probably a bit uncomfortable to watch.
As of August 28, spot gold is still trading around $4,600 per ounce. The total gain for August is about 14%, and on Monday it even briefly touched a near three-month high.
What’s the most unbelievable part?
This rally hasn’t been built on the comfortable script of a “mad rush to cut rates by the Fed.” On the contrary, U.S. inflation pressure is still there, and the market is even pricing in the possibility of continued rate hikes toward the end of the year. In normal textbook logic, the higher the interest rates, the harder it is for non-yielding assets like gold. But gold, against this headwind, has still risen 14%.
So I think the real thing driving gold higher this month isn’t “rate-cut expectations.” It’s that people’s sense of safety in money itself is declining.
U.S. fiscal and debt pressures, concerns about the dollar’s purchasing power, and on top of that, geopolitics has never truly settled down—more and more capital is starting to figure out one thing: gold has no interest, that’s true, but it also has no default risk from anyone.
More importantly, ETF inflows are back, and central bank buying remains in place. This means that buying gold now isn’t just for hedging; there’s also a significant amount of medium- to long-term allocation capital.
Of course, after a consecutive month of gains of 14%, I actually wouldn’t recommend blindly charging in just because you see a big bullish candle.
Above $4,600 is no longer a cheap entry point. If a pullback of 5%, or even deeper, shows up in the short term, I wouldn’t be surprised at all.
But I also won’t turn bearish lightly just because it has gone up a lot.
The truly strong assets are never those that rise every day. It’s those times when everyone thinks it’s ridiculously expensive and is getting ready to laugh—yet somehow, someone underneath is always stepping in with real money.
That’s what’s most terrifying about gold right now.
Before, we talked about whether “gold can it still rise.”
Now I want to ask something else:
When a gold that pays no interest can rise 14% in a month, is the market buying gold— or is it giving the dollar and the credit system a vote of no confidence?
#黄金8月上涨约14% $XAU #黄金 #贵金属 #宏观市场
If you at the beginning of this month felt that gold has already stopped rising, then this August candlestick is probably a bit uncomfortable to watch.
As of August 28, spot gold is still trading around $4,600 per ounce. The total gain for August is about 14%, and on Monday it even briefly touched a near three-month high.
What’s the most unbelievable part?
This rally hasn’t been built on the comfortable script of a “mad rush to cut rates by the Fed.” On the contrary, U.S. inflation pressure is still there, and the market is even pricing in the possibility of continued rate hikes toward the end of the year. In normal textbook logic, the higher the interest rates, the harder it is for non-yielding assets like gold. But gold, against this headwind, has still risen 14%.
So I think the real thing driving gold higher this month isn’t “rate-cut expectations.” It’s that people’s sense of safety in money itself is declining.
U.S. fiscal and debt pressures, concerns about the dollar’s purchasing power, and on top of that, geopolitics has never truly settled down—more and more capital is starting to figure out one thing: gold has no interest, that’s true, but it also has no default risk from anyone.
More importantly, ETF inflows are back, and central bank buying remains in place. This means that buying gold now isn’t just for hedging; there’s also a significant amount of medium- to long-term allocation capital.
Of course, after a consecutive month of gains of 14%, I actually wouldn’t recommend blindly charging in just because you see a big bullish candle.
Above $4,600 is no longer a cheap entry point. If a pullback of 5%, or even deeper, shows up in the short term, I wouldn’t be surprised at all.
But I also won’t turn bearish lightly just because it has gone up a lot.
The truly strong assets are never those that rise every day. It’s those times when everyone thinks it’s ridiculously expensive and is getting ready to laugh—yet somehow, someone underneath is always stepping in with real money.
That’s what’s most terrifying about gold right now.
Before, we talked about whether “gold can it still rise.”
Now I want to ask something else:
When a gold that pays no interest can rise 14% in a month, is the market buying gold— or is it giving the dollar and the credit system a vote of no confidence?
#黄金8月上涨约14% $XAU #黄金 #贵金属 #宏观市场
