Bitcoin trades sideways around $80,000, and Saylor’s “large-holder buy-and-hold” model faces a stress test
Bitcoin is consolidating near $80,000, but investors’ attention is starting to focus on the large BTC holders behind the Strategy.
According to Arthur Hayes’ analysis, Strategy currently holds about 840,000 bitcoins and must pay roughly $1.5 billion in dividend costs each year, meaning the company will have to deal with ongoing funding pressure in the long run.
At present, Strategy’s enterprise value (mNAV) is close to 1x, and the valuation offered by the market shows no clear premium. Data indicates that its base mNAV and diluted mNAV are both hovering around 0.73 to 0.74x.
In the face of this pressure, Michael Saylor has several options going forward: continue issuing stock for financing, sell a portion of the bitcoins for cash, or adjust its preferred stock dividend policy. Currently, the STRK dividend yield is about 8%, while STRC’s is around 10%–11.5%.
Simply put, Strategy’s bet on Bitcoin has gone a long way, but holding 840,000 BTC is not a risk-free game where everything only goes up. How to balance asset growth with cash-flow pressure will be the key focus for the market next.
When Bitcoin rises, a massive position is an advantage; but when the market is volatile, the cost of capital becomes the biggest challenge.
Bitcoin is consolidating near $80,000, but investors’ attention is starting to focus on the large BTC holders behind the Strategy.
According to Arthur Hayes’ analysis, Strategy currently holds about 840,000 bitcoins and must pay roughly $1.5 billion in dividend costs each year, meaning the company will have to deal with ongoing funding pressure in the long run.
At present, Strategy’s enterprise value (mNAV) is close to 1x, and the valuation offered by the market shows no clear premium. Data indicates that its base mNAV and diluted mNAV are both hovering around 0.73 to 0.74x.
In the face of this pressure, Michael Saylor has several options going forward: continue issuing stock for financing, sell a portion of the bitcoins for cash, or adjust its preferred stock dividend policy. Currently, the STRK dividend yield is about 8%, while STRC’s is around 10%–11.5%.
Simply put, Strategy’s bet on Bitcoin has gone a long way, but holding 840,000 BTC is not a risk-free game where everything only goes up. How to balance asset growth with cash-flow pressure will be the key focus for the market next.
When Bitcoin rises, a massive position is an advantage; but when the market is volatile, the cost of capital becomes the biggest challenge.
