#BTC Double Event Collision—Don’t Chase Upward Blindly Today
Today, the market has two major events that are very likely to trigger sharp volatility occurring on the same day. Everyone must stay alert.
First: BTC options worth roughly $6.4 billion expire today. The expiring positions are heavy; large option positions are stacked around 75,000 and 80,000. During this time window, the order-book positioning and positioning battles are likely to change.
Second: tonight at 10:00 p.m., a Federal Reserve official will deliver a themed speech. Macro commentary will directly affect market risk appetite. Combined with options expiration, today’s volatility will very likely be amplified in the short term.
The logic is actually quite simple.
At 80,000, you have the market’s first major threshold. Until the price truly holds above this level, don’t get anxious and start imagining upside potential to 82,000 or 84,000.
The area above is a region of strong supply. Chasing for gains there doesn’t offer a great risk-reward ratio, so it’s not recommended to buy high at this point.
During the day, you can wait and observe if the price pulls back. Pay close attention to how capital is supporting/absorbing near 79,000.
If there’s willingness from funds to take over and pick up the dip there, then a light-position, opportunistic long at support could be acceptable;
if you can’t see effective support, then choose to wait and observe—never follow the market higher blindly.
Event-driven trading has extremely many variables. Don’t gamble on direction based on gut feeling—be patient and wait for the market to provide a clear signal before acting.
Today, the market has two major events that are very likely to trigger sharp volatility occurring on the same day. Everyone must stay alert.
First: BTC options worth roughly $6.4 billion expire today. The expiring positions are heavy; large option positions are stacked around 75,000 and 80,000. During this time window, the order-book positioning and positioning battles are likely to change.
Second: tonight at 10:00 p.m., a Federal Reserve official will deliver a themed speech. Macro commentary will directly affect market risk appetite. Combined with options expiration, today’s volatility will very likely be amplified in the short term.
The logic is actually quite simple.
At 80,000, you have the market’s first major threshold. Until the price truly holds above this level, don’t get anxious and start imagining upside potential to 82,000 or 84,000.
The area above is a region of strong supply. Chasing for gains there doesn’t offer a great risk-reward ratio, so it’s not recommended to buy high at this point.
During the day, you can wait and observe if the price pulls back. Pay close attention to how capital is supporting/absorbing near 79,000.
If there’s willingness from funds to take over and pick up the dip there, then a light-position, opportunistic long at support could be acceptable;
if you can’t see effective support, then choose to wait and observe—never follow the market higher blindly.
Event-driven trading has extremely many variables. Don’t gamble on direction based on gut feeling—be patient and wait for the market to provide a clear signal before acting.
