🚨 Tonight at 10:00, global financial markets are holding their breath—the Fed Chair, Waush, makes his debut at the Jackson Hole conference, and it will determine whether $BTC surges to 85000 or falls back to 73000!!
A stubborn 3.7% PCE inflation is refusing to budge, far above the 2% target. The set of vague remarks “letting the market do the Fed’s job” that Waush used at the July FOMC press conference directly pushed the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield to its highest peak since 2007, with 5.34% leaving markets gasping. Treasury Secretary Bessent stepped in with an emergency repurchase to stabilize the situation last week—but it only worked for a day. Long-term yields are still hovering around the 5.19% high.
💥 Tonight’s script is already written—now it depends on how Waush chooses:
Scenario 1: Hawkish return
Clearly defend the 2% inflation target and keep the option of rate hikes. Market institutions see this as the only path to restoring the Fed’s credibility. The stronger dollar could push Bitcoin back toward the 73000 support level.
Scenario 2: A clear dovish signal
Continue to be vague and evasive—markets will vote with their feet. Long-term yields will keep soaring, and the dollar will accelerate its depreciation. Gold and Bitcoin will be the biggest winners, and 85000 is within reach.
CME data shows a 63.5% probability of staying put in September, and a 36.5% probability of a rate hike; but by year-end, the probability of a rate hike has surged to 45%.
A 1% rate-cut probability is essentially a non-factor. The dollar credibility indicators are weakening across the board, and anti-fiat trading momentum is rebounding again. If they go hawkish, BTC will be pushed back to 73000; if they go dovish, 85000 will be met. $ETH
#黄金8月上涨约14% #标普500涨0.7%科技板块涨3.3% #台股TAIEX受芯片股带动重返46500点
A stubborn 3.7% PCE inflation is refusing to budge, far above the 2% target. The set of vague remarks “letting the market do the Fed’s job” that Waush used at the July FOMC press conference directly pushed the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield to its highest peak since 2007, with 5.34% leaving markets gasping. Treasury Secretary Bessent stepped in with an emergency repurchase to stabilize the situation last week—but it only worked for a day. Long-term yields are still hovering around the 5.19% high.
💥 Tonight’s script is already written—now it depends on how Waush chooses:
Scenario 1: Hawkish return
Clearly defend the 2% inflation target and keep the option of rate hikes. Market institutions see this as the only path to restoring the Fed’s credibility. The stronger dollar could push Bitcoin back toward the 73000 support level.
Scenario 2: A clear dovish signal
Continue to be vague and evasive—markets will vote with their feet. Long-term yields will keep soaring, and the dollar will accelerate its depreciation. Gold and Bitcoin will be the biggest winners, and 85000 is within reach.
CME data shows a 63.5% probability of staying put in September, and a 36.5% probability of a rate hike; but by year-end, the probability of a rate hike has surged to 45%.
A 1% rate-cut probability is essentially a non-factor. The dollar credibility indicators are weakening across the board, and anti-fiat trading momentum is rebounding again. If they go hawkish, BTC will be pushed back to 73000; if they go dovish, 85000 will be met. $ETH
#黄金8月上涨约14% #标普500涨0.7%科技板块涨3.3% #台股TAIEX受芯片股带动重返46500点
