Solana remains under sustained distribution pressure after a strong wave of sales, as its price forms a descending wedge on the daily chart. This setup closely resembles a structure observed during the previous cycle that preceded a major bullish expansion.
Beyond the technical symmetry, on-chain valuation indicators also suggest that SOL could enter a consolidation phase, as the bearish momentum continues to slow down.
Solana holders remain bullish
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio of Solana currently shows a value of 0.65, placing SOL in a state of undervaluation. This is the lowest level recorded since September 2023, as well as representing an unprecedented extreme for nearly two and a half years. An MVRV below one indeed implies that the majority of holders are at a latent loss, a situation that often coincides with the end of a correction rather than the beginning of new waves of impulsive selling.
Historically, a long period of compression at these levels reduces the urgency to sell. As latent losses dominate, participants tend to shift from distribution to patience, waiting for a return to the mean. This context frequently precedes stabilization phases, even if the price remains volatile in the short term.
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Despite this pullback, the behavior of holders continues to reflect a certain resilience rather than capitulation. It is interesting to note that the realized price of Solana remains above its spot price, a configuration that has historically aligned with major lows. The same structure was observed in March 2025, when SOL entered an accumulation phase before starting a recovery phase.
This period was indeed marked by rotations, and not by sales driven by panic.
Current flows suggest that a similar pattern is forming. From December 2025 to today, investors have accumulated around 5 million SOL, for a value of 455 million dollars. This regular absorption during phases of weakness indicates a persistent conviction among major players. Historically, consistent accumulation during corrective phases has supported medium-term trend reversals on Solana.
The SOL is currently evolving around $90, close to the lower limit of its descending wedge, a key decision zone. In a similar setup, in early 2025, the price defended this region before rebounding strongly, ultimately offering an expansion of 43%. The current price behavior remains structurally consistent with the premises of this movement.
The wedge currently in place projects a potential rise of 31%, with a target towards the 156$ zone. However, this dynamic remains to be confirmed. Indeed, the price must first rebound and re-enter the 104$ threshold in support to validate the continuation of the bullish movement. A return above 122$ would thus confirm a bullish breakout and align the price action with the improvement of macro and on-chain signals.
That being said, the downside risk cannot be ignored. If accumulation weakens or reverses, SOL risks losing the 83$ level. A sharp break below this threshold would then expose the market to 75$ or less and invalidate the bullish scenario, confirming the continuation of the overall corrective trend.
The moral of the story: The rise benefits those who buy during the drop.
