Tonight, it’s more important that Worsh clearly explains the policy than the question of “whether to cut rates.”
Core PCE is still at 3.3%, and at the July meeting there were already three officials who argued for a rate hike. The market’s current pricing for September’s policy change is not extreme; instead, it leaves room for Worsh to reprice expectations.
But money has clearly been front-running: BTC has risen from about 635,000 to 810,000 over the past week—an increase of nearly 28%. Spot BTC ETFs have seen about $1.92 billion in inflows over the week; gold is also trading in a high-range consolidation near $4,600.
So the market has already priced in a portion of the “more dovish / improved liquidity.” Tonight, if Worsh’s remarks are only vague, it may actually be easier to hit longs; but if he clearly lays out a reaction framework of “inflation falling → rate cuts,” BTC and gold could see a second wave.
I still have a positive outlook on $BTC , which is currently the one most worth watching. However, above $80,000, don’t treat his speech as a mindless signal to chase longs.
Core PCE is still at 3.3%, and at the July meeting there were already three officials who argued for a rate hike. The market’s current pricing for September’s policy change is not extreme; instead, it leaves room for Worsh to reprice expectations.
But money has clearly been front-running: BTC has risen from about 635,000 to 810,000 over the past week—an increase of nearly 28%. Spot BTC ETFs have seen about $1.92 billion in inflows over the week; gold is also trading in a high-range consolidation near $4,600.
So the market has already priced in a portion of the “more dovish / improved liquidity.” Tonight, if Worsh’s remarks are only vague, it may actually be easier to hit longs; but if he clearly lays out a reaction framework of “inflation falling → rate cuts,” BTC and gold could see a second wave.
I still have a positive outlook on $BTC , which is currently the one most worth watching. However, above $80,000, don’t treat his speech as a mindless signal to chase longs.