Solana is still facing continuous selling pressure after a sharp decline, and the daily chart is forming a descending wedge. This pattern is very similar to what was seen before the previous cycle's upward expansion phase.
Not only the technical symmetry but also on-chain valuation metrics suggest that SOL is entering a bottoming phase as the downward pressure slows.
Solana holders remain bullish.
The Solana market cap to realized market cap (MVRV) ratio currently shows 0.65, indicating that SOL is undervalued. This level is the lowest since September 2023 and represents an extreme level not seen in about two and a half years. When MVRV falls below 1, it means that many holders are facing unrealized losses, a situation that is commonly observed not in the early stages of new panic selling but towards the end of a correction phase.
In past cases, long-term compression at this level has reduced the urgency of selling. As unrealized losses become dominant, market participants tend to shift from selling to a wait-and-see attitude, increasing their tendency to wait for mean reversion. In such situations, even if there is short-term volatility, it often serves as a precursor to a stabilization phase.
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Despite the ongoing decline, the behavior of holders shows persistence rather than panic selling. In particular, Solana's realized price is above the spot price, which has often coincided with major bottoming structures in the past. A similar situation was confirmed in March 2025, when SOL transitioned into an accumulation phase and entered a recovery phase.
During this period, the characteristic was not panic selling, but rather a rotation of funds.
The current flow also suggests a similar pattern. From December 2025 to the present, investors have accumulated approximately 5 million SOL (worth $455 million). Steady absorption during a declining phase demonstrates the strong conviction of large investors. Historically, consistent accumulation during correction periods has supported mid-term trend reversals for Solana.
Currently, SOL is trading around $90 and is approaching the lower boundary of the descending wedge. This is an important decision-making zone. A similar pattern was observed in early 2025, where after maintaining this area, the price shifted upward, ultimately recording a 43% increase. A similar initial movement is observed this time as well.
From the current wedge structure, there is a potential upside of up to 31%, with around $156 as the target. However, this is conditional, requiring first a support level above $104. Additionally, a breakout will be confirmed above $122, leading to a bullish development in response to improvements in macro and on-chain indicators.
However, downside risks cannot be ignored. If the momentum of accumulation weakens or reverses, there is a risk that SOL may not maintain the $83 level. A clear breach below this level would increase the risk of $75 or lower, negating bullish scenarios and confirming a continuation of a larger corrective trend.
