In the Asia session, SOL briefly rose to around $107, with an intraday gain of more than 6%, clearly outperforming BTC and ETH. Capital flowed into Solana’s first round of on-chain governance around the “production cut” expectation. But the core conclusion needs to be stated upfront: reducing new issuance does not immediately imply deflation, and passing a vote does not mean the parameters take effect right away.
The most closely watched right now is SGP-0002. It plans to increase the annual rate at which SOL’s supply decreases from 15% to 30%. The approval rate is about 68.77%, only slightly above the two-thirds threshold, with a participation rate of 47.72%. The corresponding technical plan is expected to have the network reach the 1.5% long-term inflation floor earlier—moving it from around 2032 to 2029. Over the next six years, it should result in roughly 18.9 million fewer SOL being issued. For token holders, this is a tangible reduction in long-term dilution, not the immediate destruction of existing supply.
Another SGP-0003 is more likely to be misread by clickbait headlines. It proposes to charge for the computational resources used in transactions, and to destroy all of the resource fees, which is expected to increase the average daily amount destroyed from about 650 tokens to 7,500—9,000. However, the current approval rate is only about 62.72%, still below the passing threshold; the 20.75% abstention votes also increase the difficulty of passage. More importantly, even if up to 9,000 tokens are destroyed per day, it is still significantly less than the current roughly 60,000 daily new issuance, so it cannot be claimed that SOL is about to become deflationary.
What truly matters in this round of voting is that Solana is using formal on-chain governance for the first time to determine the direction of tokenomics. The bull case is: faster deceleration of emissions, converting network usage into burns, which can improve SOL’s long-term value capture; increased governance transparency also helps institutions evaluate token holdings and staking returns. The bear concern is that cutting emissions could reduce validator rewards, and if node costs do not decline in tandem, it may affect operating enthusiasm; meanwhile, concentrated holdings and staking mean that a small number of large participants can have a bigger influence on the outcome.
Also note that the three votes are still in the last epoch, so the numbers may continue to change. Even if an SGP is approved, it is only a directional authorization; afterward, technical documents, client implementation, and feature activation still need to be completed, and the current SOL inflation rate will not instantly change the moment the voting ends. If the market has already priced in “deflation,” and the final outcome or implementation timeline falls short of expectations, the risk of a pullback will be amplified.
Tonight’s external variables are also crucial. After BTC surged to $81,280 and then fell back near $80,000, although U.S. spot ETF inflows have been net positive for eight straight trading days totaling about $2.8 billion, the market is still waiting for Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech at 10:00 PM Beijing time. The U.S. dollar is near a one-week high, and the 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.68%; if his remarks are hawkish, the high-volatility SOL often reacts more sensitively than BTC.
Next, focus on the final vote result, the implementation schedule, validator sentiment, and whether real network activity can support the expected burn volume. The above is only market analysis and does not constitute investment advice. The short-term gains have already been significant—please be cautious about volatility after event execution.