#Waller to Appear at Jackson Hole Tonight—Can We Get a Clear Policy Framework?
I think Waller will most likely do a “speak one way, act another” move: calling for more rate hikes out loud, while quietly leaving the door open for a pause in September.
Core PCE is still hovering at 3.3%, but the Initial Jobless Claims dropping to 203,000 is the really key data—it suggests the labor market is already starting to cool in a subtle way.
Before the event, Schmid and Hamarck emphasized inflation risks with all their might. Ironically, that feels like “two actors in the same play,” with one playing the red face and the other the white face—setting the stage for Waller’s “ambiguous remarks.”
Looking back to last December’s Jackson Hole session: Powell also started with tough talk, and afterward the market interpreted it as a “pause signal.” Gold jumped directly by 2% that night.
So my view is: Waller won’t straightforwardly say “no rate hikes in September,” but will use wording like “data-dependent”—kicking the ball to the upcoming CPI and Non-Farm Payrolls.
For us traders, the strategy right now should be “bet on volatility, not direction.”
In terms of execution: don’t go all-in before he speaks. Wait until 22:00 right after his remarks, then follow only after the 5-minute candles for gold and BTC break in the same direction.
After all, at occasions like this, the real opportunity isn’t in the speech itself—it’s in how the market “deciphers” the subtext.
Even if he stays hawkish throughout, as long as he doesn’t mention “consecutive rate hikes,” the bulls will have a reason to fight back.
Then big BTC and all the other coins will surge straight upward—officially ushering in the era of the bull market!
I think Waller will most likely do a “speak one way, act another” move: calling for more rate hikes out loud, while quietly leaving the door open for a pause in September.
Core PCE is still hovering at 3.3%, but the Initial Jobless Claims dropping to 203,000 is the really key data—it suggests the labor market is already starting to cool in a subtle way.
Before the event, Schmid and Hamarck emphasized inflation risks with all their might. Ironically, that feels like “two actors in the same play,” with one playing the red face and the other the white face—setting the stage for Waller’s “ambiguous remarks.”
Looking back to last December’s Jackson Hole session: Powell also started with tough talk, and afterward the market interpreted it as a “pause signal.” Gold jumped directly by 2% that night.
So my view is: Waller won’t straightforwardly say “no rate hikes in September,” but will use wording like “data-dependent”—kicking the ball to the upcoming CPI and Non-Farm Payrolls.
For us traders, the strategy right now should be “bet on volatility, not direction.”
In terms of execution: don’t go all-in before he speaks. Wait until 22:00 right after his remarks, then follow only after the 5-minute candles for gold and BTC break in the same direction.
After all, at occasions like this, the real opportunity isn’t in the speech itself—it’s in how the market “deciphers” the subtext.
Even if he stays hawkish throughout, as long as he doesn’t mention “consecutive rate hikes,” the bulls will have a reason to fight back.
Then big BTC and all the other coins will surge straight upward—officially ushering in the era of the bull market!