JACKSON HOLE: THE MARKET IS WAITING FOR A MESSAGE FROM KEVIN WARSH
🔸 Investors are paying special attention to Kevin Warsh’s first speech at Jackson Hole, as he has still not given a clear direction on interest-rate policy since taking office as Fed Chair. The most important point will be the “reaction function” — the level of inflation, growth, and financial conditions that could prompt the Fed to cut or raise rates.
🔸 Treasury yields are also in the spotlight. In the context of Scott Bessent expanding the long-term bond buyback program, the market will watch how Warsh assesses pressure on long-term yields and the Fed’s role in the bond market. He may also mention five groups of principles that the Fed is currently researching: inflation, the balance sheet, economic data, technology, and communications.
🔸 According to the source, fresh, clear forward guidance is the factor most likely to create the biggest swings. A vague speech or one leaning toward easing could push long-term yields back up, with the 30-year Treasury yield potentially heading toward 5.5%+.
Tonight, every word from Warsh could become a catalyst for $BTC and the entire risk-on market.
This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
🔸 Investors are paying special attention to Kevin Warsh’s first speech at Jackson Hole, as he has still not given a clear direction on interest-rate policy since taking office as Fed Chair. The most important point will be the “reaction function” — the level of inflation, growth, and financial conditions that could prompt the Fed to cut or raise rates.
🔸 Treasury yields are also in the spotlight. In the context of Scott Bessent expanding the long-term bond buyback program, the market will watch how Warsh assesses pressure on long-term yields and the Fed’s role in the bond market. He may also mention five groups of principles that the Fed is currently researching: inflation, the balance sheet, economic data, technology, and communications.
🔸 According to the source, fresh, clear forward guidance is the factor most likely to create the biggest swings. A vague speech or one leaning toward easing could push long-term yields back up, with the 30-year Treasury yield potentially heading toward 5.5%+.
Tonight, every word from Warsh could become a catalyst for $BTC and the entire risk-on market.
This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
