Bitcoin lost the support of $74K which was a primary support for the Bulls to maintain. We can attribute several causes to this, from China threatening Taiwan in the last 12H or Panama severing ties with China and putting the world in great doubt about the Panama Canal, anyway, let's set these reasons aside for now and just look at the chart (for now).
We are below the primary support here, $74k, which is bad for the bulls, as it places us directly at the next lower support, $64k, and in the red zone is also where we have the EMA 100 (1M) which was also the fiercest resistance level of the 2021 bull market, it makes sense to have good support there.
The weekly RSI is in oversold territory, and some slowdown in the decline is most likely, but we will still have to return above $74k, and a failure to recover there would be the same as the failure at $97K when we didn't recover $98K, meaning it would put us at a disadvantage and probably push us below the red zone on the chart.
Therefore, a jump towards $74K will be as important as $98K was.
To be honest, I would prefer a quick drop to the red zone, with Bitcoin's dominance following, so the altcoins would suffer less (if the dominance continued to follow the price (check OTHERS/BTC) and we would definitely end this correction once and for all.
...AND THE BLUE ZONE?
On my chart, there is a blue zone between $64.7K and $52K; that is where the price should not come, but it is where... if the possibility exists, I will build a long-term LEVERAGED BUY position for Bitcoin.
Notice that the blue zone has around 22% of space, the same space I used when we reached $15.6K/18.6K at the market bottom in 2022. In that trade, I CLOSED my position around $112K, but this time I hope not to CLOSE for a long time, so here is a move I hope to make and take this Swing Trading well above $250K for Bitcoin.
We now have a white line on the chart that establishes the long-term uptrend; it will serve perfectly.
...AND THE ALTCOINS?
Altcoins are extremely low; almost all of them have been at their strongest supports since 2022, and some are even below that, including extremely consolidated projects like $FIL, which is below the support it maintained since 2022.
Some others like $HBAR still maintain +100% of their lows, but it is one of the few that has this performance.
However, even with the sharp drop of #BTC, we are still seeing the OTHERS/BTC chart holding very strong at this moment, and as long as we can continue like this and reach above 0.1470, then the altcoins will not have any more uncontrolled downward movement, facilitating a quick and strong recovery as soon as Bitcoin finds solid support.
I know that most people use the term "WE WILL ENTER A BEAR MARKET" if Bitcoin stays below $75K, but gentlemen, this phrase is completely wrong since we have not gone through a BULL MARKET... it's simple, look at the OTHERS/BTC chart, notice that in the other cycles marked in yellow, we had a higher rise than the previous top, which defined the top of the BULL MARKET and it is evident, just look at the chart... WE DID NOT HAVE that, so there is no way to enter the BEAR MARKET because we never left it since 2022.
Yes, it is the longest bear market in history... but it is evident that we have not gone through any Bull Run, therefore there is no way to enter the Bear Market because we have been since 2022, but we will still go through a Bull Run, there is no other option.
THE SLAVES OF FEAR...
It is true that since Trump took office, he has thrown us into a sea of global uncertainties; there is no denying that, not even his supporters or haters. We agree on that!
With the U.S. government's private war, the entire world became tense, and markets reacted extremely poorly to Trump's delusions, which impacted risk assets first, but this is now spreading to other assets like GOLD, which fell -21% in two weeks. Despite some recovery this week, it is very likely just a retest of the low, and a continuation downward is probable.
Notice here that I am not even mentioning SILVER; this Shitcoin dropped -14% in a single day, so it applies the same fate as GOLD in the end.
Below is the chart of Gold; I even posted this chart a few weeks ago, and it is very likely that I have hit the definitive top for this; time will tell.
THE DOMINANCE OF THE KING...
We are seeing AGAIN Bitcoin's dominance clearly being rejected around 59.94%, and at the current moment, it will seek support around 58.66%; that is where it matters... as soon as that region is broken, we will have a new jump in OTHERS/BTC, and altcoins will have much greater strength, and consequently recover faster than Bitcoin.
As soon as we break the white dotted line on the chart, we will break the uptrend it has been supporting since 2023, which has obviously prevented the altcoins from performing well all this time.
The target remains the same here, 49%, so no rush.
It is evident that the dominance will still take some time to make its way down since institutional DEMAND for Bitcoin is still extremely high, and Wall Street will like these prices. As long as we stay BELOW $70K, these companies will desperately accumulate.
THE CAPITULATION...
It is quite clear that recent events like the disaster on 10/10 severely injured some market makers and whales, in addition to having devastated the leveraged retail. However, there is no worse time to be bearish here, and there is no reason to be discouraged about the future of the crypto sector.
I also think we should improve in several aspects of the sector, especially in lines that prevent manipulations and gray areas that allow something in that sense. However, we will end up doing this sooner or later because we are in constant evolution in this sector, and it is evident that the traditional market is crumbling, and they will need cryptocurrencies; it's no longer about WHETHER they will need them but WHEN they will realize they need cryptos.
Do a quick search and you will see how many companies and large investors are coming into the crypto sector in recent months; the amount is absurd.
I have been here since 2015, and obviously, profit has always been a goal... year after year, cycle after cycle, but the desire to see this sector evolve and become the financial future is what also motivates us.
“Bold hearts are forging a future where cryptocurrencies become the global language of innovation and financial freedom, building a new foundation for human evolution.” — Ualifi Araújo
Finally...
Gentlemen, I post about crypto every day, encouraging people to keep accumulating even when the charts are horrible and when most hide; I have been through this countless times and SUCCEEDED, others have also SUCCEEDED, everyone can succeed, but what determines our success is our own decisions. I can post this pile of information here, just like I did now, but in the end, IT'S YOU, IN YOUR HOMES AND OFFICES WHO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURES.
Good luck to each one of you!