This morning, the $$BTC daily close was above 80,000. As long as today holds above 80k, it doesn’t count as a false breakout.
The major support is around 77,250, and the minor support is around 79,300. Both of these levels are good spots to enter long positions.
Tonight, Wach will likely not directly tell the market “whether there will be a rate hike in September or not” in the Jackson Hole remarks. Instead, they will leave room and decide based on the subsequent data.
That means: no prior commitment to a September rate hike, and no commitment to a September rate cut.
If they announce a rate cut too early: later, if oil prices, tariffs, and demand push inflation back up, it’s like they’ve already handed in the tool, and then having to bring it back later would damage credibility even more. Financial conditions would first loosen and then tighten, with higher volatility.
On the other hand: if inflation clearly falls later, and they add a round now, only to need to switch positions quickly afterward, it would also make the reaction function look messy and make it harder for the market to price.
So “wait for more data, and tonight don’t give explicit guidance for September” is basically about not placing a bet before the two paths are clear.
Unless something unexpected happens, Xixi thinks it will keep going up. Even if there’s a pullback, it should be a small one—after a retreat of about 1,000–2,000 points, you can still get on the long trade. The target is in the 85,000–90,000 range.
#比特币守于7.94万美元
The major support is around 77,250, and the minor support is around 79,300. Both of these levels are good spots to enter long positions.
Tonight, Wach will likely not directly tell the market “whether there will be a rate hike in September or not” in the Jackson Hole remarks. Instead, they will leave room and decide based on the subsequent data.
That means: no prior commitment to a September rate hike, and no commitment to a September rate cut.
If they announce a rate cut too early: later, if oil prices, tariffs, and demand push inflation back up, it’s like they’ve already handed in the tool, and then having to bring it back later would damage credibility even more. Financial conditions would first loosen and then tighten, with higher volatility.
On the other hand: if inflation clearly falls later, and they add a round now, only to need to switch positions quickly afterward, it would also make the reaction function look messy and make it harder for the market to price.
So “wait for more data, and tonight don’t give explicit guidance for September” is basically about not placing a bet before the two paths are clear.
Unless something unexpected happens, Xixi thinks it will keep going up. Even if there’s a pullback, it should be a small one—after a retreat of about 1,000–2,000 points, you can still get on the long trade. The target is in the 85,000–90,000 range.
#比特币守于7.94万美元
