$TAC fell very quickly, but what’s truly worth discussing is the positions—over the past 24 hours, the value of the holdings dropped by 47.74%, while the price fell by 49.63%. Is this sell-off driven by real forced liquidation, or is it just a sentiment stampede? The funding rate is still +0.0050% in the positive range, which suggests the bulls haven’t fully given up. But in high volatility, this kind of funding rate is almost meaningless.
In the most recent full hour alone, it fell another 3.21%. Hourly trading value is only 1.02 times the median level—volume isn’t especially extreme, yet the price is still moving downward. In other words, distribution isn’t crowded; it looks more like passive de-risking is calling the shots.
Going forward, I’ll recognize only one scenario: if the price stabilizes at a certain level and the holdings stop shrinking rapidly, then I’d consider whether this is a second confirmation. Conversely, if during a bounce the holdings are still being reduced, that would indicate money is flowing out, and the rebound is just short-covering.
The question remains: after such a big drop, the funding rate is still positive—are people really stepping in to buy the dip, or are the bulls simply still holding on and refusing to leave?
In the most recent full hour alone, it fell another 3.21%. Hourly trading value is only 1.02 times the median level—volume isn’t especially extreme, yet the price is still moving downward. In other words, distribution isn’t crowded; it looks more like passive de-risking is calling the shots.
Going forward, I’ll recognize only one scenario: if the price stabilizes at a certain level and the holdings stop shrinking rapidly, then I’d consider whether this is a second confirmation. Conversely, if during a bounce the holdings are still being reduced, that would indicate money is flowing out, and the rebound is just short-covering.
The question remains: after such a big drop, the funding rate is still positive—are people really stepping in to buy the dip, or are the bulls simply still holding on and refusing to leave?