This UAI alarm looks pretty interesting. In the past 24 hours it dropped another 8.1%, and it’s also the second time in a row moving in the same direction within a short period. Put simply, the shorts are keeping the pressure on, while the longs haven’t even managed a decent counterattack.

First look at price and volume: down 1.6% over 5 minutes, down 8.8% over 1 hour, and the trading volume is up to 5.8 times—this is a textbook example of a selloff with a volume expansion. Remember this: don’t bottom-fish during a selloff with rising volume; only a rebound on shrinking volume is the real sign of stabilization. With this kind of move, to put it bluntly, the shorts are basically “carrying the sedan.” Whoever steps in ends up getting hit.

The signals on the contract side are more worth pondering. Even though the price fell, the open interest actually dropped by 1.8%. What does that mean? It’s not that new shorts came in to smash the market—rather, longs are cutting losses and exiting, while shorts are closing positions in profit. In a行情 where selling pressure leads to a decline alongside position reductions, there’s often momentum to continue. But we’re not far from the phase bottom. The key is to watch for when signals of a downtrend ending on declining volume appear.

On the social data side, retail long positions are 2.2 times the short positions, but the heat is cooling off. This is the typical state of retail traders being trapped and then playing dead. The floating turnover of 23.9% is not considered high either. Once funds come in to push the price, a rebound could happen very quickly, but the prerequisite is that the decline must stop first.

My advice on how to trade is very clear: don’t chase the downside and don’t try to catch a falling knife. If you want to get involved, wait for two signals—either a one-hour bullish reversal candlestick with expanded volume appears, or the price consolidates sideways with shrinking volume for more than 4 hours at a certain level. If you really want to bet on a rebound, wait until the price holds above the one-hour 5-day moving average, then talk about it. Put the stop loss 2% below the previous low; if the risk-reward ratio is not favorable, just don’t do it.

Data snapshot: current price none | 24h -8.1% | volume ratio 5.8 | funding rate none | position change -1.8%

There’s no rush in this market. Wait until the structure becomes clear before acting. Keeping your hands off is better than anything else.

—— 12:57 market notes