Jiahao Weekly Friday Insights Sharing
Tonight at 22:00, the Federal Reserve Chair, Waller, will attend the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Symposium and deliver the most widely watched public speech since taking office.
His usual approach is to play down forward-looking policy guidance and leave markets to interpret economic data independently. However, what Wall Street is most focused on right now is his “reaction function.” If this speech once again centers on long-term macro topics such as productivity and demographics, while sidestepping comments on monetary policy, then the bond market may treat this silence as a potential policy signal—thereby driving volatility in risk assets.
At present, the 83,000 level is the key battleground for BTC bulls. Only if the price can effectively hold above this level can the bulls further open upside room and consolidate their offensive advantage; if repeated attempts to break through still fail, then investors should be wary of a concentrated bull profit-taking exit, which could trigger a panic-type selloff.
From the perspective of the 4-hour cycle, the market’s lows are consistently rising, but the highs above still fail to achieve a real breakout. The chart has formed a standard ascending wedge pattern, which carries a relatively high risk of turning downward. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator is showing a bearish divergence above the zero line: the peaks of the two MACD lines are repeatedly making lower highs. This fully indicates that the bulls’ upward momentum has been gradually exhausting.
On the chart, price action has remained in a high-level consolidation range. BTC and ETH alternately test new highs, but each time they spike to refresh the high, they quickly pull back—this is a classic “stop-hunt / bull trap” style shakeout. Therefore, do not chase gains blindly.
For today’s trading, stay cautious against a potential topping.
BTC: Short above 80,500. Targets: 78,500. If a breakdown occurs, continue to look toward 77,500.
ETH: Short around 2,520. Target: 2,450. If a breakdown occurs, continue to look toward 2,400.
#英伟达开盘140分钟成交335亿美元 #英伟达财报后涨8.74% $NVDAB $AAPLB $BTC
Tonight at 22:00, the Federal Reserve Chair, Waller, will attend the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Symposium and deliver the most widely watched public speech since taking office.
His usual approach is to play down forward-looking policy guidance and leave markets to interpret economic data independently. However, what Wall Street is most focused on right now is his “reaction function.” If this speech once again centers on long-term macro topics such as productivity and demographics, while sidestepping comments on monetary policy, then the bond market may treat this silence as a potential policy signal—thereby driving volatility in risk assets.
At present, the 83,000 level is the key battleground for BTC bulls. Only if the price can effectively hold above this level can the bulls further open upside room and consolidate their offensive advantage; if repeated attempts to break through still fail, then investors should be wary of a concentrated bull profit-taking exit, which could trigger a panic-type selloff.
From the perspective of the 4-hour cycle, the market’s lows are consistently rising, but the highs above still fail to achieve a real breakout. The chart has formed a standard ascending wedge pattern, which carries a relatively high risk of turning downward. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator is showing a bearish divergence above the zero line: the peaks of the two MACD lines are repeatedly making lower highs. This fully indicates that the bulls’ upward momentum has been gradually exhausting.
On the chart, price action has remained in a high-level consolidation range. BTC and ETH alternately test new highs, but each time they spike to refresh the high, they quickly pull back—this is a classic “stop-hunt / bull trap” style shakeout. Therefore, do not chase gains blindly.
For today’s trading, stay cautious against a potential topping.
BTC: Short above 80,500. Targets: 78,500. If a breakdown occurs, continue to look toward 77,500.
ETH: Short around 2,520. Target: 2,450. If a breakdown occurs, continue to look toward 2,400.
#英伟达开盘140分钟成交335亿美元 #英伟达财报后涨8.74% $NVDAB $AAPLB $BTC
