BTC rises sharply then falls back; the real test is only just beginning
After BTC broke through $80,000, it quickly pulled back and is currently trading in a range around $79,000. This rally has indeed been fierce—up more than 25% in a single month—but it was fueled not only by genuine spot ETF inflows; a portion of the move was also boosted by forced short liquidations. In the short term, it’s not entirely driven by active buying pressure.
Market liquidity has clearly improved. U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $1.92 billion last week, the strongest single-week performance in nearly 10 months. Over the past 7 trading days, cumulative inflows reached roughly $2.5 billion. This suggests institutional capital has re-entered the market. However, after BTC quickly surges, the profit-taking pressure from low-cost holdings is likely to rise at the same time.
The biggest variable right now is the BTC options set to expire on August 28. Deribit has around 81,700 BTC options contracts concentrated in a single settlement, with a notional value of about $6.44 billion. The call-to-put ratio is approximately 0.83, and open interest is mainly clustered around $75,000 and $80,000. Notably, the maximum pain point lies at $68,000–$70,000—clearly below the current price—so the battle leading up to and around expiration could be especially intense.
My view is straightforward: $80,000 is not just an ordinary round-number level now—it’s a zone where long and short costs are highly concentrated. In the short term, as long as $78,000 is held, there’s still a chance the market attempts to surge again toward $80,000–$83,000. If price breaks below $78,000, watch for a pullback toward the $75,000 area.
Has this round of price action ended? You can’t judge it solely by a single candlestick that spikes and then reverses. Once the interference from the options settlement fades, whether ETF inflows can continue and whether spot buyers can absorb the supply from high-level sell pressure will be the key to determining whether BTC is undergoing a trend reversal or merely a rebound after being oversold.
#加密市场 #比特币升破8万美元创三月新高 #比特币守于7.94万美元
After BTC broke through $80,000, it quickly pulled back and is currently trading in a range around $79,000. This rally has indeed been fierce—up more than 25% in a single month—but it was fueled not only by genuine spot ETF inflows; a portion of the move was also boosted by forced short liquidations. In the short term, it’s not entirely driven by active buying pressure.
Market liquidity has clearly improved. U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $1.92 billion last week, the strongest single-week performance in nearly 10 months. Over the past 7 trading days, cumulative inflows reached roughly $2.5 billion. This suggests institutional capital has re-entered the market. However, after BTC quickly surges, the profit-taking pressure from low-cost holdings is likely to rise at the same time.
The biggest variable right now is the BTC options set to expire on August 28. Deribit has around 81,700 BTC options contracts concentrated in a single settlement, with a notional value of about $6.44 billion. The call-to-put ratio is approximately 0.83, and open interest is mainly clustered around $75,000 and $80,000. Notably, the maximum pain point lies at $68,000–$70,000—clearly below the current price—so the battle leading up to and around expiration could be especially intense.
My view is straightforward: $80,000 is not just an ordinary round-number level now—it’s a zone where long and short costs are highly concentrated. In the short term, as long as $78,000 is held, there’s still a chance the market attempts to surge again toward $80,000–$83,000. If price breaks below $78,000, watch for a pullback toward the $75,000 area.
Has this round of price action ended? You can’t judge it solely by a single candlestick that spikes and then reverses. Once the interference from the options settlement fades, whether ETF inflows can continue and whether spot buyers can absorb the supply from high-level sell pressure will be the key to determining whether BTC is undergoing a trend reversal or merely a rebound after being oversold.
#加密市场 #比特币升破8万美元创三月新高 #比特币守于7.94万美元
