Elon Musk and SpaceX and Tesla to merge?
Prediction markets are already going crazy: 71% probability by 2028
One company is worth 1.5 trillion, the other 1.3 trillion. One launches rockets every day, the other builds electric cars every day. If Musk merges these two companies into one, it would become the largest listed company in human history—no question.
You think this is just a joke?
Kalshi’s prediction market shows the probability of a merger hitting 71% by 2028. On Polymarket, the probability of it happening by end of 2027 is 55%.
Musk’s July earnings call will be pressed on it. He won’t deny it—he’ll say, “It must go through the proper process.”
The merger logic is also solid: Tesla builds AI cars, SpaceX does Starlink + Starship + AI data centers, and xAI builds Grok.
Put the three together and you’ve got coverage from the ground all the way to space.
SpaceX is likely to be the acquirer. With Musk’s super voting power, after the merger it’s still his call.
But the numbers have to pencil out: Tesla’s Q2 free cash flow turns negative, and full-year capital expenditures won’t be less than $25 billion;
SpaceX net debt is $7 billion, Tesla debt is $27 billion.
Both are money-burning giants—will teaming up be for warmth, or to add leverage?
You tell me: is this “century merger” really going to happen, or is Musk once again painting a picture for the market?$SPCX $TSLA
Prediction markets are already going crazy: 71% probability by 2028
One company is worth 1.5 trillion, the other 1.3 trillion. One launches rockets every day, the other builds electric cars every day. If Musk merges these two companies into one, it would become the largest listed company in human history—no question.
You think this is just a joke?
Kalshi’s prediction market shows the probability of a merger hitting 71% by 2028. On Polymarket, the probability of it happening by end of 2027 is 55%.
Musk’s July earnings call will be pressed on it. He won’t deny it—he’ll say, “It must go through the proper process.”
The merger logic is also solid: Tesla builds AI cars, SpaceX does Starlink + Starship + AI data centers, and xAI builds Grok.
Put the three together and you’ve got coverage from the ground all the way to space.
SpaceX is likely to be the acquirer. With Musk’s super voting power, after the merger it’s still his call.
But the numbers have to pencil out: Tesla’s Q2 free cash flow turns negative, and full-year capital expenditures won’t be less than $25 billion;
SpaceX net debt is $7 billion, Tesla debt is $27 billion.
Both are money-burning giants—will teaming up be for warmth, or to add leverage?
You tell me: is this “century merger” really going to happen, or is Musk once again painting a picture for the market?$SPCX $TSLA
