Brothers, don’t sleep tonight.
At 22:00 Beijing time, Fed Chair Waller will deliver his first keynote address since taking office at Jackson Hole.
It’s been three months. After this guy took office, he did three things: canceled forward guidance, stopped updating the dot plot, and refused to explain the policy rationale at press conferences.
The market is going crazy from being pent up.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to its highest level since 2007. Gold is edging toward its three-month high. BTC is jumping around near $80,000.
Every word Waller says tonight will be used to price the U.S. dollar, gold, and Bitcoin.
First, let’s talk about why the Fed’s credibility collapsed.
First, a communication void.
July FOMC meeting: 9 votes to 3 to hold steady. Waller at the press conference refused to explain why—he simply said, “Let the market price in rate hikes for the Fed.”
When would he raise rates? No answer. Would the inflation target be adjusted? No answer.
So what’s the result? The bond market sees the most severe selloff in years.
Second, the Treasury stirs things up.
Last week, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced an expansion of the scale of long-term Treasury repo operations. That day, the 30-year yield fell by 10 basis points; the next day it all climbed back.
The market is totally baffled: who actually calls the shots—both of you?
A direct quote from Toronto’s Silver Gold Bull FX director: “Waller wants to reduce interference so market signals are clearer, but the Treasury is distorting those signals. If Waller doesn’t clarify his stance on Friday, the U.S. dollar could drop sharply.”
Third, the market “raises rates” for the Fed.
The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury briefly broke above 5.3%, the highest since 2007. Bank of America warns: if Waller doesn’t release a rate-hike signal tonight, the 30-year yield could surge to 5.5%.
The market is doing for the Fed what it dares not do.
Tonight, there are only two outcomes:
✅ Waller “wins”—
Reiterating inflation risks, keeping the option of rate hikes, and clearly outlining the policy reaction framework.
The uncertainty premium fades, long-end yields fall, and the dollar steadies.
Gold and BTC may face near-term pressure—but note, only in the short term. Because the market finally knows what the Fed is doing.
❌ Waller “loses”—
Keep dodging, staying vague, and replay that scene from July.
Trust keeps leaking away; long-end yields continue to climb, and the dollar is under pressure.
Gold and BTC could rise further—“anti-fiat” trading is fully back on.
BTC is stuck around $80,000 right now. Up or down?
The answer isn’t in the candlesticks—it’s in Waller’s prepared remarks.
BTC is currently caught in a tug-of-war between “U.S. dollar credit” and “rate-hike expectations.”
If Waller is vague, the market keeps trading policy uncertainty; gold and BTC as “anti-fiat” assets may benefit.
If Waller is hawkish, it could put an end to the recent rally in gold prices and BTC.
But here’s the logic, folks—think it through yourself:
Gold is already speaking with its price—rate hikes can’t scare it anymore.
What about BTC? It’s waiting for a confirmation signal.
After tonight, there are only two kinds of people:
The other is figuring it out in advance.
One is waiting for the行情 to finish before asking, “What happened?”
Every word Waller says tonight is pricing the U.S. dollar, gold, and Bitcoin.
He isn’t giving a speech—he’s drawing lines for global assets.