Hello everyone, I’m Lao Liu.

Today is August 28, 2026.

Friday

Gold was under pressure yesterday around 4640, trading in a range and then pulling back. During the European session, it briefly retreated to around 4565. In the US session, although the price rebounded, it met resistance near 4618. Late at night, the market gave back and slipped below 4600. On the daily chart, it closed with a bullish cross star (a small-bodied cross) and ended below the 5-day moving average.

From the daily structure, yesterday’s gold close and its price movement rhythm were basically in reverse synchronization with the US Dollar Index. In the short term, the market still holds a relatively weak outlook for gold, but the actual downside momentum has not expanded. This suggests the market is waiting for guidance from upcoming news catalysts.

Currently, gold is trading within the area between the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. In all likelihood today it will continue to consolidate around this zone. Specifically: watch the short-term resistance near 4620 on the 5-day line from above; watch support near 4550 on the 10-day line from below. Technically, the bias leans toward expanding downside space, but whether it can achieve that depends on the impact of tonight’s Waller remarks.

If the remarks trigger market expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes, then gold may break below the 10-day moving average, which would then lead to the release of the technical demand for correction. In the future, there may be a move downward toward 4500 and even around the 20-day line near 4450.

If the remarks are on the dovish side, then for gold it would be a positive factor. In the short term, gold may return toward the 5-day moving average and then resume a short-term rebound trend.

结合小时图走势，yesterday’s gold main structure met expectations and was running within the descending channel. The issue today is that the price is already at the end stage of the descending channel, so in the short term the market may depend even more on fundamentals, and may even require news to decide the direction. For today, from above continue to focus on the main pressure near the upper edge of the channel around 4620. During the daytime session, pay even more attention to the contention around the 4600 whole-number level. From below, first look at the struggle near yesterday’s low around 4570. Technically, the bias is toward the market approaching the lower edge of the channel near 4550. As to whether the final outcome will be a breakout above the channel or a breakdown below it, it may ultimately be decided by Waller’s remarks.

In terms of execution, the main line for gold today is still to look for a correction/adjustment. For now, I do not consider any short-term attempts at going long. Tonight, adjust the strategy accordingly based on whether Waller’s remarks involve expectations of rate hikes.

For aggressive traders today: you can take a light position short slightly before the 4600 area, around 4600, and set a stop at 4605 for the short. If the price stands above during the daytime session, then wait to test around 4615 before considering another short, with a stop at 4620. The target is uniformly to reduce positions around 4570. For the remaining longs, keep watching for a pullback expectation around 4550.

Conservative traders should temporarily stand by for now, and then adjust the strategy tonight based on how Waller’s remarks turn out.

【Crude Oil Analysis】

Yesterday, the U.S. oil price first fluctuated and then rebounded after retracing and hitting the 80.6 area. During the evening session, it was still capped around the 83 level. Then in the late-night hours, the行情 rose again and rebounded, reaching as high as the 84.2 area, before pulling back again. In the end, the daily candle closed as a bullish one.

From the daily chart structure, recent U.S. oil has still been showing an disorderly pattern, mainly caused by unstable news related to Iran-Iraq.

At present, judging from the hourly chart trend, U.S. oil in the short term seems to be trending stronger. However, it’s still hard to predict how strong the upward momentum will be or how long it can last. These factors still need to be referenced against the impact of news. Therefore, today U.S. oil will temporarily maintain the expectation of range-bound trading, though it may be slightly stronger.

For today’s trading, keep watching the 84.0-84.3 area from above for testing. This level is not only yesterday’s high, but also the broken-out point from the prior downward move, so technically it should still provide some downward pressure.

For today, first watch for a test of short-term support around 83 to 82.7, with the main support around 82. In terms of positioning, conservative traders should continue to choose to wait and observe rather than take action. Aggressive traders can trade short-term low-long and high-short around the above range. If new news comes out regarding Iran-Iraq during the day and disrupts the market, then adjust the strategy in a timely way based on the situation.

The above is my personal opinion, for reference only!#黄金