Did the CLARITY bill fail to pass this year? 5 insider accounts all bet “No”
A month ago, on Polymarket, the question was whether the “CLARITY Act” would pass this year. The probability was still 38%.
What about now? 14%.
Five brand-new accounts, totaling $2.46 million, all bet “No”—that the bill won’t pass this year.
Coincidence? Or did someone see the answer in advance?
These five accounts are named: VelvetNova27, KatsuManager87, blahblah344, EamonnD1812, and 1916JConnolly.
Their playbooks look like they came out of the same training course:
Funding path: centralized exchange → new on-chain wallet (only transfers 0.01 ETH as gas + a large amount of integer USDC) → cross-chain via a relay → top up into Polymarket.
Trading style: each account trades only this one market—just 1 to 3 market buy orders, with no regard for costs.
The five accounts take 5 of the top 6 spots on the “No” holders ranking, collectively accounting for 68% of the market’s total.
$2.46 million. If they were right, the profit would be $609,000.
Why?
Their counterparty is a few well-known celebrity traders on Polymarket:
ImJustKen, total profit $3.3 million.
AllByMyseIf, total profit $526,000.
GollumGekko, total profit $268,000.
Seasoned old-timers are betting “Yes,” while brand-new accounts are betting “No.”
Whose information is more complete?
Polymarket has seen this before.
Previously, research revealed that more than 150 wallets may have used insider information from the U.S. military to trade, accumulating about $8 million in profits, with an average win rate as high as 97.2%.
Some accounts placed precise bets just hours before the Israel strike on Iran—and then made a killing afterward.
Anti-corruption data group ACDC identified 556 wallets suspected of insider trading from 12,355 wallets and 78,496 high-risk bets.
Polymarket itself has said it has already handed over dozens of traders’ wallets to authorities.
$2.46 million isn’t a small amount.
If it’s insider trading—whose information is it?
If it’s pure judgment—why not use older accounts?
On September 15, the Senate will hold a key procedural vote on the CLARITY bill.
By then, the answer will naturally be revealed.
But one thing is already certain:
In prediction markets, some people’s “predictions” arrive a step ahead of the news. $BTC
A month ago, on Polymarket, the question was whether the “CLARITY Act” would pass this year. The probability was still 38%.
What about now? 14%.
Five brand-new accounts, totaling $2.46 million, all bet “No”—that the bill won’t pass this year.
Coincidence? Or did someone see the answer in advance?
These five accounts are named: VelvetNova27, KatsuManager87, blahblah344, EamonnD1812, and 1916JConnolly.
Their playbooks look like they came out of the same training course:
Funding path: centralized exchange → new on-chain wallet (only transfers 0.01 ETH as gas + a large amount of integer USDC) → cross-chain via a relay → top up into Polymarket.
Trading style: each account trades only this one market—just 1 to 3 market buy orders, with no regard for costs.
The five accounts take 5 of the top 6 spots on the “No” holders ranking, collectively accounting for 68% of the market’s total.
$2.46 million. If they were right, the profit would be $609,000.
Why?
Their counterparty is a few well-known celebrity traders on Polymarket:
ImJustKen, total profit $3.3 million.
AllByMyseIf, total profit $526,000.
GollumGekko, total profit $268,000.
Seasoned old-timers are betting “Yes,” while brand-new accounts are betting “No.”
Whose information is more complete?
Polymarket has seen this before.
Previously, research revealed that more than 150 wallets may have used insider information from the U.S. military to trade, accumulating about $8 million in profits, with an average win rate as high as 97.2%.
Some accounts placed precise bets just hours before the Israel strike on Iran—and then made a killing afterward.
Anti-corruption data group ACDC identified 556 wallets suspected of insider trading from 12,355 wallets and 78,496 high-risk bets.
Polymarket itself has said it has already handed over dozens of traders’ wallets to authorities.
$2.46 million isn’t a small amount.
If it’s insider trading—whose information is it?
If it’s pure judgment—why not use older accounts?
On September 15, the Senate will hold a key procedural vote on the CLARITY bill.
By then, the answer will naturally be revealed.
But one thing is already certain:
In prediction markets, some people’s “predictions” arrive a step ahead of the news. $BTC
