The most important event of this week is already tomorrow
Kevin Warsh will deliver his first speech in Jackson Hole as the head of the Federal Reserve.
The market is closely watching the tone of this speech: a dovish signal usually supports stocks and crypto, while a hawkish one strengthens the dollar, lifts yields, and weighs on risk assets.
But does this hold true in practice? Let’s look at the last 4 years:
🔴2022: hawkish Powell — S&P 500 -13% over 19 trading days.
🔴2023: mildly hawkish, less than -1%.
🔴2024: dovish tone +1.48%.
🔴2025: dovish tone +4.44%.
In three cases, a dovish tone came with a rise in the market. 2022 was the exception, when Powell’s tough rhetoric triggered a multi-week selloff.
But this year is different.
Warsh will speak at Jackson Hole for the first time as the Fed chair, so the market has no prior history of his speeches to rely on.
Kevin Warsh will deliver his first speech in Jackson Hole as the head of the Federal Reserve.
The market is closely watching the tone of this speech: a dovish signal usually supports stocks and crypto, while a hawkish one strengthens the dollar, lifts yields, and weighs on risk assets.
But does this hold true in practice? Let’s look at the last 4 years:
🔴2022: hawkish Powell — S&P 500 -13% over 19 trading days.
🔴2023: mildly hawkish, less than -1%.
🔴2024: dovish tone +1.48%.
🔴2025: dovish tone +4.44%.
In three cases, a dovish tone came with a rise in the market. 2022 was the exception, when Powell’s tough rhetoric triggered a multi-week selloff.
But this year is different.
Warsh will speak at Jackson Hole for the first time as the Fed chair, so the market has no prior history of his speeches to rely on.