The price of XRP has experienced a sharp decline, with a 24% drop over the past week as selling pressure has intensified across the crypto market. This pullback places the altcoin in a vulnerable position, breaking with the usual recovery patterns observed in the past.

This persistent weakness suggests that the current correction could alter the historical price behavior of XRP if demand does not return.

The history of XRP indicates an upcoming rebound.

The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) of XRP is now approaching the capitulation zone. At this stage, unrealized losses exceed the meager gains within the circulating supply of the asset. Historically, such conditions reduce incentives to sell.

Investors often suspend their redistribution and start accumulating at discounted levels, which can contribute to price stabilization.

However, XRP has not yet shown clear signs of this reversal. Selling pressure remains dominant, preventing the NUPL from triggering a true trend reversal. Without an accumulation that would replace the fear-driven outflows, XRP struggles to benefit from its usual recovery signals, thus maintaining a marked climate of caution.

On-chain transaction data illustrate a persistent wave of panic selling. Over the past week, the number of XRP transactions executed at a loss consistently exceeds those recording a profit.

On February 2, the transaction volume indicated losses of $2.51 billion, compared to gains of $567 million. This imbalance highlights a growing loss of confidence, with holders prioritizing capital preservation in the face of falling prices and the fragility of the entire crypto market.

A transaction volume dominated by losses often signals an advanced stage of panic. If this type of phase can precede a rebound, it also exacerbates corrections if nothing is done. Thus, XRP's inability to stabilize transactional behavior suggests a fragile dynamic, exposing the asset to new declines unless sentiment improves quickly.

Data regarding balances on exchanges confirm bearish signs. Indeed, over the past four days, more than 97 million XRP, or $140 million, have been transferred to exchange wallets. The increase in balances on exchanges generally indicates a selling intention, rather than a long-term holding perspective.

This increase reflects the growing fear among XRP holders. As more tokens are transferred to exchanges, selling pressure intensifies. Sustained inflows thereby reduce the chances of recovery, with the increase in supply tending to overwhelm short-term demand during periods of heightened uncertainty.

The price of XRP has dropped by 24.4% over the week and is around $1.44 at the time of writing this article. The asset has lost the support of $1.47 and is now trending towards $1.37. The day of Wednesday, December 4, marked the lowest daily close of XRP since November 2024, thus confirming the structural fragility of the token.

If bearish conditions persist without a return of significant buying interest, a further decline seems likely. A loss of the support level of $1.37 could then accelerate selling pressure. In this case, the price of XRP could slide towards $1.28 in the coming days, extending the current corrective phase.

That said, a rebound remains possible if sentiment improves. A return above the support level of $1.58 would indeed signal a resurgence of strength, which could propel XRP towards $1.70. The reclaiming of this threshold would then restore bullish confidence and help erase some of the recent losses.

The moral of the story: The decline of a crypto invites further decline.