Solana ($SOL ) is currently undergoing a contradictory period: on one hand, the price has significantly fallen from its peak, and the technical indicators are weak; on the other hand, top institutions are outlining a grand long-term blueprint for its transformation from a "Meme Playground" to "Payment Infrastructure." The current price trend is a manifestation of the intense collision between short-term market sentiment and long-term value reassessment.

Short-term technical perspective: Under noticeable pressure, key support is being tested

From a technical standpoint, SOL's recent performance is weak. The price has broken below several short-term moving averages, and the 4-hour chart shows the moving averages in a bearish arrangement, with the RSI hovering in the weak range of 40-50, showing no strong rebound momentum. The current price is oscillating around the key support level of $117, and if this level fails, the next important psychological and technical support may be around $110. Overall market sentiment and the direction of Bitcoin will continue to dominate SOL's price fluctuations in the short term.

Institutional perspective: Downgrading short-term targets but upgrading long-term vision

The change in institutional attitudes is quite meaningful. Taking Standard Chartered Bank as an example, its latest report has downgraded SOL's price target for the end of 2026 from $310 to $250, reflecting a cautious assessment of the slowdown in short-term growth momentum. However, the bank has significantly raised its long-term expectations, believing that SOL is expected to reach $2000 by 2030. The Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise has also proposed a similar long-term outlook, suggesting that SOL could potentially become a trillion-dollar asset within five years, with prices pointing above $1600.

In summary, SOL is at a node of "short-term pressure, long-term potential." For traders, attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the $117 support in the short term, with resistance levels above in the range of $125-135. The market may enter a period of consolidation to digest selling pressure and wait for further verification of the ecological fundamentals.

For long-term investors, the current price adjustment and the downgrade of institutional short-term targets may provide an opportunity to reassess its long-term transformation narrative at a more attractive position. The true realization of value will depend on whether its narrative of "ultra-low-cost payment network" can transition from concept to large-scale application. #Max