Jackson Hole is here tonight! Let’s talk about the capital undercurrents I’ve noticed and the strategies to respond
Tonight’s debut speech by the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is absolutely the only real anchor for the global markets.
After watching the data for the past few days, I’ll share a few straightforward, real observations—no fluff:
The market is extremely split right now, not a true “full Risk-on” setup
One side is Nvidia-driven AI tech stocks surging like crazy; the other side is gold and BTC at elevated levels being aggressively bought up.
This isn’t really a bet on an economic boom—it’s more like “two-track hedging”: buy AI to chase growth, while also buying gold/BTC to hedge against long-term U.S. fiscal credit risks (the Debasement Trade).
The market is highly tolerant of “high inflation”
Yesterday’s PCE inflation data came out (Core 3.3% is still too high). By the old playbook: inflation high ➔ central bank hawkish ➔ USD up ➔ gold and crypto under pressure.
But in reality, the whole tape is rising: tech, BTC, and gold are all up, and the dollar simply can’t strengthen.
This suggests capital already expected the inflation to be on the higher side—and is now just waiting for Warsh’s final tone tonight.
Tonight’s possible paths and corresponding strategies:
Neutral / slightly dovish: gold, BTC, and tech stocks continue to fly at high levels; the dollar falls.
Stronger-than-expected hawk: If he says “we must crush inflation no matter what,” overcrowded assets at the highs (AI/gold/BTC) could face a round of de-leveraging downside risk immediately.
The biggest hidden danger right now isn’t that prices aren’t rising—it’s that these three segments are too crowded. Valuation/returns no longer look as good as they do at lower levels.
Personal trading status: WAIT (waiting)
Macro tells me which way the wind is blowing; flows tell me where the money is running.
No matter whether I’m leaning bullish or bearish, I won’t blindly chase highs or fabricate shorts out of thin air. I have to wait for tonight’s event to land, then use H4/M15 chart structure to generate signals before deciding where to click.
Trading isn’t about gambling bets—it’s about responding to facts. Tonight’s volatility will be huge. Please make sure your risk control is solid. Wishing everyone an account that doesn’t flash red!
#BTC #FederalReserve #MacroAnalysis #黄金
Tonight’s debut speech by the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is absolutely the only real anchor for the global markets.
After watching the data for the past few days, I’ll share a few straightforward, real observations—no fluff:
The market is extremely split right now, not a true “full Risk-on” setup
One side is Nvidia-driven AI tech stocks surging like crazy; the other side is gold and BTC at elevated levels being aggressively bought up.
This isn’t really a bet on an economic boom—it’s more like “two-track hedging”: buy AI to chase growth, while also buying gold/BTC to hedge against long-term U.S. fiscal credit risks (the Debasement Trade).
The market is highly tolerant of “high inflation”
Yesterday’s PCE inflation data came out (Core 3.3% is still too high). By the old playbook: inflation high ➔ central bank hawkish ➔ USD up ➔ gold and crypto under pressure.
But in reality, the whole tape is rising: tech, BTC, and gold are all up, and the dollar simply can’t strengthen.
This suggests capital already expected the inflation to be on the higher side—and is now just waiting for Warsh’s final tone tonight.
Tonight’s possible paths and corresponding strategies:
Neutral / slightly dovish: gold, BTC, and tech stocks continue to fly at high levels; the dollar falls.
Stronger-than-expected hawk: If he says “we must crush inflation no matter what,” overcrowded assets at the highs (AI/gold/BTC) could face a round of de-leveraging downside risk immediately.
The biggest hidden danger right now isn’t that prices aren’t rising—it’s that these three segments are too crowded. Valuation/returns no longer look as good as they do at lower levels.
Personal trading status: WAIT (waiting)
Macro tells me which way the wind is blowing; flows tell me where the money is running.
No matter whether I’m leaning bullish or bearish, I won’t blindly chase highs or fabricate shorts out of thin air. I have to wait for tonight’s event to land, then use H4/M15 chart structure to generate signals before deciding where to click.
Trading isn’t about gambling bets—it’s about responding to facts. Tonight’s volatility will be huge. Please make sure your risk control is solid. Wishing everyone an account that doesn’t flash red!
#BTC #FederalReserve #MacroAnalysis #黄金