ONG 7 days from 0.059 to 0.229, then the very next day got smashed down to 0.092. Now it has bounced back to 0.118. By rights, after the breakdown the leverage should have been reduced—but over the next 24 hours the open position actually increased by 71.5% instead. The money didn’t run; someone rebuilt the position.
The key is which direction they’re piling into. Funding rates were all negative across 8 consecutive windows. Shorts not only failed to make money—they even had to pay the funding. Active orders on the sell side also pushed up to 53%. The bulk of this new inventory is still shorts pressing lower levels. Whale accounts saw the long-side ratio drop by 6.28% over 7 hours—big players are withdrawing.
The rebound also isn’t without buyers: spot saw a net inflow of 100 million in 3 hours, and all 12 candlesticks were positive. Unfortunately, this money is propped up by small retail orders. Big orders had a net outflow of 8.05 million. The resistance at the 0.134 high couldn’t hold, and the price slid back to 0.118.
My take: the leverage from the crash hasn’t been fully unwound; instead, around 0.1 it’s being piled back up for the short side. This rebound is fuel for the next leg down. Bearish. A bounce up to 0.126–0.13 is the short entry zone; the first target is 0.10. If it breaks, then watch for 0.092.
A one-signal reversal of my view: open interest starts shrinking while price simultaneously reclaims 0.13—that would be shorts covering, and you need to guard against a squeeze. As long as open interest is still rising, the downside isn’t over yet. #ong $ONG
The key is which direction they’re piling into. Funding rates were all negative across 8 consecutive windows. Shorts not only failed to make money—they even had to pay the funding. Active orders on the sell side also pushed up to 53%. The bulk of this new inventory is still shorts pressing lower levels. Whale accounts saw the long-side ratio drop by 6.28% over 7 hours—big players are withdrawing.
The rebound also isn’t without buyers: spot saw a net inflow of 100 million in 3 hours, and all 12 candlesticks were positive. Unfortunately, this money is propped up by small retail orders. Big orders had a net outflow of 8.05 million. The resistance at the 0.134 high couldn’t hold, and the price slid back to 0.118.
My take: the leverage from the crash hasn’t been fully unwound; instead, around 0.1 it’s being piled back up for the short side. This rebound is fuel for the next leg down. Bearish. A bounce up to 0.126–0.13 is the short entry zone; the first target is 0.10. If it breaks, then watch for 0.092.
A one-signal reversal of my view: open interest starts shrinking while price simultaneously reclaims 0.13—that would be shorts covering, and you need to guard against a squeeze. As long as open interest is still rising, the downside isn’t over yet. #ong $ONG
