I’ve categorized this round of Ethena adjustments as: “first fix the sell-side pressure on order flow, then fix the valuation anchor.” I’m bullish on ENA, but I won’t chase. If I really do it, I’ll use $BTC as the weather vane.
The logic isn’t complicated: earlier share buybacks and locked holdings, canceling the VC monthly unlocks, and then reallocating the protocol’s net revenue back to buybacks of ENA. These all address the same thing—the ongoing selling pressure on the circulating end. This helps sentiment, and it helps valuation too, but it doesn’t mean the price will straight-line up. A lot of people treat “buyback” as a good news event already landing—I don’t process it that way. The cleaner the news package, the more likely it is to front-run trading expectations.
Right now I’m not touching any related small-cap positions. I only have a short order around $BTC 80800, with a stop loss at 81350 and a target at 79200. The reason is that the tape here looks more like overheating: the $BTC futures-to-spot volume ratio is 10.1x, and the funding rate is only +0.0070%, which suggests leverage is amplifying while the spot side isn’t tracking as cleanly. News can lift risk appetite, but I’ll handle the pullback first—I won’t enter when sentiment is at its fullest.
If I’m wrong, I’ll stop out. As long as the structure hasn’t broken, I won’t flip. $BTC #BTC
I could be mistaken too—this is my own judgment.
The logic isn’t complicated: earlier share buybacks and locked holdings, canceling the VC monthly unlocks, and then reallocating the protocol’s net revenue back to buybacks of ENA. These all address the same thing—the ongoing selling pressure on the circulating end. This helps sentiment, and it helps valuation too, but it doesn’t mean the price will straight-line up. A lot of people treat “buyback” as a good news event already landing—I don’t process it that way. The cleaner the news package, the more likely it is to front-run trading expectations.
Right now I’m not touching any related small-cap positions. I only have a short order around $BTC 80800, with a stop loss at 81350 and a target at 79200. The reason is that the tape here looks more like overheating: the $BTC futures-to-spot volume ratio is 10.1x, and the funding rate is only +0.0070%, which suggests leverage is amplifying while the spot side isn’t tracking as cleanly. News can lift risk appetite, but I’ll handle the pullback first—I won’t enter when sentiment is at its fullest.
If I’m wrong, I’ll stop out. As long as the structure hasn’t broken, I won’t flip. $BTC #BTC
I could be mistaken too—this is my own judgment.