Bitcoin fell sharply to 73,000 USD on February 3, deepening the market crash. It has already brought the price of BTC down by 41% compared to the all-time high (ATH) of over 126,000 USD in October 2025. This decline has intensified the debate on whether the market is approaching a cyclical bottom or entering a deeper phase of correction.
The sell-off reflects growing concern in traditional markets. U.S. stock indices have weakened due to fears of disruptions caused by artificial intelligence and increasing geopolitical threats. Investors have begun to retreat from higher-risk assets.
In such a situation, capital returned to traditional safe havens like gold and silver. Meanwhile, Bitcoin did not attract defensive demand.
The changes in Bitcoin's value reflect macroeconomic sensitivity rather than independence from global markets. The recent decline coincided with new tensions between the United States and Iran, following news of an Iranian drone being shot down near a U.S. aircraft carrier.
Furthermore, this event raised the VIX by about 10% and pushed the cryptocurrency fear and greed index into the 'extreme fear' zone.
At the same time, new developments in the field of artificial intelligence — including the announcement regarding Anthropic's Claude chatbot — have raised concerns about further disruptions in the technology sector.
This uncertainty has weighed on the largest tech companies and further reduced investors' appetite for speculative assets.
While Bitcoin fell, gold rose by 6.8%, and silver gained 10%, confirming its status as a primary hedge during periods of monetary and geopolitical stress.
In an interview with CNN, Gerry O’Shea, global head of market analysis at Hashdex, noted that the divergence between Bitcoin and gold indicates that investors still view precious metals as the main safe haven in times of uncertainty.
This shift has weakened the short-term narrative of Bitcoin as a 'safe haven' and increased downward pressure.
Analysts warn of deeper declines and a potential bull trap
Market participants are divided, but several analysts warn that the correction may not be over yet.
Cryptocurrency market analyst Benjamin Cowen stated that the upcoming Bitcoin move is crucial.
Other analysts present even greater pessimism. Nehal, a popular trader on platform X, deemed the current situation a classic bull trap and warned that declines may only be halfway through.
According to Nehal's analysis, previous Bitcoin cycles ended with declines of 86% in 2018 and 78% in 2021.
The application of a similar method in the current cycle could mean a decrease of 72%, bringing Bitcoin down to around 35,000 USD.
This cyclical approach still exerts influence despite structural changes such as ETF adoption and a greater share of institutional investors.
On-chain data signals a bottom discovery phase
On-chain indicators provide further arguments in the debate. Analyst CryptOpus pointed out that Bitcoin has, in his opinion, entered a phase of “bottom discovery” for the first time in this cycle.
At the peak in 2025, about 19.8 million BTC were in profit. This number has now dropped to 11,111,000 BTC, representing a 40% decline in profitable resources.
Historically, such conditions have often signaled a transition from a correction phase to a new cycle. In 2018, Bitcoin was in this phase for about eight months before stabilizing.
Will Bitcoin drop this low? Key technical levels
From a technical perspective, the risk of further declines remains clear. Nic, CEO of Coin Bureau, emphasized that Bitcoin has been under pressure since breaking below the 50-week moving average in November.
Bitcoin is declining and is currently hovering near MicroStrategy's average acquisition cost. This is around the lows from April, approximately 74,400 USD. Nic warns:
“If we break lower, the next important level is 70,000 USD, just above the previous historical ATH of 69,000 USD. A clear drop below this level opens the path to a bearish target in the range of 55,700–58,200 USD, between the realized price and the 200-week moving average.”
Conflicting opinions on whether the bottom is near
Not all analysts agree with the bearish scenario. Michaël van de Poppe believes that Bitcoin may already be approaching the end of its correction.
Meanwhile, analyst David Battaglia focused on liquidation dynamics and described the current situation as increasingly irrational.
Battaglia noted that below 85,000 USD, liquidity gaps are significant. This means that panicking sellers — both institutions and whales — likely exited at unfavorable prices.
He compared this to the drop from October 10 related to Binance, which he described as structurally cleaner. Battaglia said:
“Between 90,000 and 100,000 USD, there is a huge density of short positions and an imbalance of put to call options at a level of 14:1, which already signals a strong bottom under normal conditions.”
Will Bitcoin drop lower? Summary
Bitcoin's drop to 73,000 USD has reignited fears of a deeper correction. Macro uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and mixed on-chain signals make the market divided. Some expect further declines, while others see signs of a bottom forming.
The upcoming weeks will determine whether this move is just a temporary pause or the foundation for a new trend in 2026.
To read the latest cryptocurrency market analysis from BeInCrypto, click here.
