【Do you think that when the price reaches $ 80k, the bulls have already won? What I see is a bunch of people standing at the door who don’t dare to go in】
Retail traders have a nasty habit—when they see the price rise, they think the bulls have won; when they see it fall, they think it’s over. Fine, I get it—I was like that in 2017 too.
But now spread the data out and look: BTC $ 80315, up 10.5% over the past 7 days, the Fear & Greed Index is 71, and the Greed zone—sounds exciting, right? But what about the 24-hour trading volume? It’s on the low side. The market share is 59.2%, which suggests the money is indeed concentrating into BTC—but concentration doesn’t mean a pump. Those are two different things.
What I’m watching right now isn’t the price. It’s that supply wall at $ 80000. The news says BTC is testing this level, near the average cost basis of ETF holders. Put plainly, what does that mean? ETF holders are sitting on a large stack of coins—their cost line becomes a psychological anchor. Push up? The ETFs can distribute/sell in batches. Dump down? Someone will think they’re getting a bargain.
So the current situation is: the bulls don’t dare to surge up hard, afraid of lifting the ETF’s position; the bears don’t dare to short aggressively either, afraid of getting stopped out and getting blown up. With volume unable to pick up, the market just grinds here.
The question I’m stuck on is: if ETF holders start cutting their positions, how will the market react? Institutional behavior patterns are different from retail traders—they don’t make decisions by looking at the candlestick chart. The 2021 bull market was driven by retail FOMO. This time, if institutions run first—then the script will be completely different from last time.
What’s your mindset right now? Will you dare to jump into this move? Or are you like me—saying you’re just watching the show, while your hands are already itching?
Retail traders have a nasty habit—when they see the price rise, they think the bulls have won; when they see it fall, they think it’s over. Fine, I get it—I was like that in 2017 too.
But now spread the data out and look: BTC $ 80315, up 10.5% over the past 7 days, the Fear & Greed Index is 71, and the Greed zone—sounds exciting, right? But what about the 24-hour trading volume? It’s on the low side. The market share is 59.2%, which suggests the money is indeed concentrating into BTC—but concentration doesn’t mean a pump. Those are two different things.
What I’m watching right now isn’t the price. It’s that supply wall at $ 80000. The news says BTC is testing this level, near the average cost basis of ETF holders. Put plainly, what does that mean? ETF holders are sitting on a large stack of coins—their cost line becomes a psychological anchor. Push up? The ETFs can distribute/sell in batches. Dump down? Someone will think they’re getting a bargain.
So the current situation is: the bulls don’t dare to surge up hard, afraid of lifting the ETF’s position; the bears don’t dare to short aggressively either, afraid of getting stopped out and getting blown up. With volume unable to pick up, the market just grinds here.
The question I’m stuck on is: if ETF holders start cutting their positions, how will the market react? Institutional behavior patterns are different from retail traders—they don’t make decisions by looking at the candlestick chart. The 2021 bull market was driven by retail FOMO. This time, if institutions run first—then the script will be completely different from last time.
What’s your mindset right now? Will you dare to jump into this move? Or are you like me—saying you’re just watching the show, while your hands are already itching?