【散户最大的错觉：以为现在是在"抄底"】
Lots of people tell me now, “It’s about time, it’s down enough already, it should have bottomed.” I understand what you mean—from the peak it’s down almost 40%, so it feels cheap.
But in 2017, when I got cut, I thought the same thing.
Data shows BTC is indeed in a deep adjustment range. Historically, this kind of zone is where long-term capital really starts to eye opportunities—not because I’m wise in hindsight, but because I’ve seen this playbook in 2017 and again in 2020. Every time, it’s the same: when it falls to a certain extent, smart money starts entering in batches, but that doesn’t mean it can go up right away.
What’s interesting is that now BTC’s market cap share is close to 60%, and the entire altcoin market is basically just running along. What does that indicate? Money hasn’t left, but it’s tightening its front line. Trading volume can’t break out—suggesting everyone is waiting for something, waiting for a signal, waiting for others to move first.
There’s a thing I haven’t gone into over the last couple of days: Lightning Network nodes issued an emergency warning because of an AI code bug. It’s not a big deal, not a small one either, but I’ve been thinking about one question—when foundational infrastructure starts having problems, do all these “value narratives” running on top still hold up? This isn’t a technical issue; it’s a confidence issue.
Here’s another signal you can figure out for yourselves: BTC is currently testing a supply wall near $ 80000. That exact spot aligns with the average cost line of ETF holders. I don’t know what institutions are thinking, but I know this position won’t be easy to push through.
So in practical terms—
Who does this affect? If you already have a position, you’re basically just waiting for direction, burning time. If you don’t have a position and want to come in and “buy the dip,” I can only say: the bottom you think you see might just be the cost line where someone else started building their position. Does the business logic make sense? It does. But “making sense” doesn’t mean it will rise immediately, and it doesn’t mean you’ll make money just because you enter.
What’s my mindset right now? Honestly, my hand is a bit itchy. But the injuries from 2021 aren’t fully healed yet, so this time I really didn’t go in. I said it more fiercely than anyone, and I’ve kept my hands steadier than anyone too—the muscle memory trained by the market doesn’t let me.
What about you—what’s your mindset right now? In this wave, do you dare to enter? Or are you going to be like me: itchy, but steadier than your brain?
Lots of people tell me now, “It’s about time, it’s down enough already, it should have bottomed.” I understand what you mean—from the peak it’s down almost 40%, so it feels cheap.
But in 2017, when I got cut, I thought the same thing.
Data shows BTC is indeed in a deep adjustment range. Historically, this kind of zone is where long-term capital really starts to eye opportunities—not because I’m wise in hindsight, but because I’ve seen this playbook in 2017 and again in 2020. Every time, it’s the same: when it falls to a certain extent, smart money starts entering in batches, but that doesn’t mean it can go up right away.
What’s interesting is that now BTC’s market cap share is close to 60%, and the entire altcoin market is basically just running along. What does that indicate? Money hasn’t left, but it’s tightening its front line. Trading volume can’t break out—suggesting everyone is waiting for something, waiting for a signal, waiting for others to move first.
There’s a thing I haven’t gone into over the last couple of days: Lightning Network nodes issued an emergency warning because of an AI code bug. It’s not a big deal, not a small one either, but I’ve been thinking about one question—when foundational infrastructure starts having problems, do all these “value narratives” running on top still hold up? This isn’t a technical issue; it’s a confidence issue.
Here’s another signal you can figure out for yourselves: BTC is currently testing a supply wall near $ 80000. That exact spot aligns with the average cost line of ETF holders. I don’t know what institutions are thinking, but I know this position won’t be easy to push through.
So in practical terms—
Who does this affect? If you already have a position, you’re basically just waiting for direction, burning time. If you don’t have a position and want to come in and “buy the dip,” I can only say: the bottom you think you see might just be the cost line where someone else started building their position. Does the business logic make sense? It does. But “making sense” doesn’t mean it will rise immediately, and it doesn’t mean you’ll make money just because you enter.
What’s my mindset right now? Honestly, my hand is a bit itchy. But the injuries from 2021 aren’t fully healed yet, so this time I really didn’t go in. I said it more fiercely than anyone, and I’ve kept my hands steadier than anyone too—the muscle memory trained by the market doesn’t let me.
What about you—what’s your mindset right now? In this wave, do you dare to enter? Or are you going to be like me: itchy, but steadier than your brain?