Kalshi Traders Now See Only 18% Chance Bitcoin Hits $50K Before $100k
Prediction market odds have shifted sharply in Bitcoin’s favor.
On Kalshi, the contract asking whether Bitcoin will reach $50,000 before $100,000 now sits at just 18.1%. That is a steep drop from much higher probabilities earlier in the year.
The market is essentially a race: which price does Bitcoin touch first? A falling percentage means traders increasingly believe $100,000 is more likely to come before another drop to $50,000.
The change tracks the recent rebound that lifted Bitcoin from the mid-$60,000s back toward $80,000. As price recovered and sentiment improved, the chance of a deep correction to $50K first has been priced down.
It is one of the clearer real-time sentiment gauges available, showing how quickly expectations can flip when momentum returns.
Prediction market odds have shifted sharply in Bitcoin’s favor.
On Kalshi, the contract asking whether Bitcoin will reach $50,000 before $100,000 now sits at just 18.1%. That is a steep drop from much higher probabilities earlier in the year.
The market is essentially a race: which price does Bitcoin touch first? A falling percentage means traders increasingly believe $100,000 is more likely to come before another drop to $50,000.
The change tracks the recent rebound that lifted Bitcoin from the mid-$60,000s back toward $80,000. As price recovered and sentiment improved, the chance of a deep correction to $50K first has been priced down.
It is one of the clearer real-time sentiment gauges available, showing how quickly expectations can flip when momentum returns.
