There’s a rather twisted scene in the options contract book today: an aggressive buy order for 7 hours, with volume expanding to 150%. The buy-side share surged to 56.6%—the setup looked like it was trying to push higher. But once the price was driven up to 141.95, it got hammered back down. At the close, it was still pinned around 140.8, grinding.
Where did the money go? It was taken by the sell orders sitting above. In the spot market, across 20 levels, the sell volume is 10,865 versus buy volume of 10,106. The sell wall is actually thicker. Yesterday, it was pushed against 141.95 twice and neither time broke through—this “gate” looks solid.
More importantly, this wave of buying never really flowed into the contracts. OI (open interest) over 7 hours is -1.79%, and over the whole day it’s only -0.27%. Funding rates sampled 8 times never turned positive; the average is still -0.003% and sitting on the floor. This indicates the move isn’t a fresh leveraged long driving the rise. It’s more like existing positioning from short-covering plus spot order sweeping—sure, it’s lively, but it lacks foundation.
So at this level, I’m going short. Enter short at 140.8. First target: 139.5; if that breaks, then 138.5 (near the 24-hour low). If OI starts building back up, the funding rate flips positive, and the volume expansion holds steady above 142—then the short thesis is invalid. I’ll cancel orders and flip to a long.
#spcx $SPCX
Where did the money go? It was taken by the sell orders sitting above. In the spot market, across 20 levels, the sell volume is 10,865 versus buy volume of 10,106. The sell wall is actually thicker. Yesterday, it was pushed against 141.95 twice and neither time broke through—this “gate” looks solid.
More importantly, this wave of buying never really flowed into the contracts. OI (open interest) over 7 hours is -1.79%, and over the whole day it’s only -0.27%. Funding rates sampled 8 times never turned positive; the average is still -0.003% and sitting on the floor. This indicates the move isn’t a fresh leveraged long driving the rise. It’s more like existing positioning from short-covering plus spot order sweeping—sure, it’s lively, but it lacks foundation.
So at this level, I’m going short. Enter short at 140.8. First target: 139.5; if that breaks, then 138.5 (near the 24-hour low). If OI starts building back up, the funding rate flips positive, and the volume expansion holds steady above 142—then the short thesis is invalid. I’ll cancel orders and flip to a long.
#spcx $SPCX
