Trump is drawing K-line charts again
The Trump administration currently has no intention of returning to the agreement reached with Iran in June. Instead, it continues to apply pressure through economic measures. Iran, on the other hand, demands that the U.S. restore the agreement, grant exemptions for oil sales, and end the maritime blockade before it is willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
This means one thing:
The “cooling down” scenario that the market had expected is now heading again toward an “escalating risk” direction.
If the Strait of Hormuz becomes a focus again, the most direct impacts will be on:
Oil / Gold / BTC
First, oil: we’ll watch whether the geopolitical risk premium gets priced back in;
Gold will resume pricing in safe-haven demand;
As for BTC, we’ll see whether the market treats it as a risk asset or if it continues to move along with the “U.S. dollar depreciation / alternative asset” narrative.
So far, Pakistan, Oman, and Qatar are all mediating, but progress is limited. Both sides also appear to be preparing for a worse outcome.
So going forward, I’ll be paying special attention to:
Strait of Hormuz news → crude oil reaction → U.S. dollar / gold → whether BTC follows.
If this line of tension truly heats up again, market volatility could amplify very quickly.
Trump TradingView is back online.$BTC
The Trump administration currently has no intention of returning to the agreement reached with Iran in June. Instead, it continues to apply pressure through economic measures. Iran, on the other hand, demands that the U.S. restore the agreement, grant exemptions for oil sales, and end the maritime blockade before it is willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
This means one thing:
The “cooling down” scenario that the market had expected is now heading again toward an “escalating risk” direction.
If the Strait of Hormuz becomes a focus again, the most direct impacts will be on:
Oil / Gold / BTC
First, oil: we’ll watch whether the geopolitical risk premium gets priced back in;
Gold will resume pricing in safe-haven demand;
As for BTC, we’ll see whether the market treats it as a risk asset or if it continues to move along with the “U.S. dollar depreciation / alternative asset” narrative.
So far, Pakistan, Oman, and Qatar are all mediating, but progress is limited. Both sides also appear to be preparing for a worse outcome.
So going forward, I’ll be paying special attention to:
Strait of Hormuz news → crude oil reaction → U.S. dollar / gold → whether BTC follows.
If this line of tension truly heats up again, market volatility could amplify very quickly.
Trump TradingView is back online.$BTC
