$BTC has surged to 80,350 this round. It looks pretty lively—up 2.38% over the last 24 hours—but let me pour some cold water first: this level isn’t for you to chase; it’s for you to think clearly about what you’re actually doing. Look at the data: the 24-hour high is 80,845 and the low is 78,157, with an amplitude of over 3% and trading volume of 13.2B. These numbers look big, but if you break them down, you’ll find this rally’s volume didn’t show that kind of ruthless “institutional buying” force; it looks more like short-covering combined with squeezing out retail FOMO. And on top of that, over in the U.S. stock market, those big sharks are saying things like “S&P 500 is still a long-term positive,” while repeatedly mentioning in the news: “history says there will be silver lining when the market breaks down”—what does that mean? It means they have the chips, but they’re also giving themselves an exit plan.
People have already seen how BTC correlates with U.S. stocks over the past two years—don’t assume the crypto market can move independently. I’ve kicked around too many of these charts. What I fear most is when you see one big bullish candle and rush in, only to find out the main force is distributing right above your head.
At this position, there’s still a large pool of trapped longs between price and the previous high above. Downside-wise, around 78,000 support is only very thin. If you go all-in right now, and someone paints a fake breakout to trap you, you won’t even get a chance to run.
So I advise you: if you really want to trade, wait for a pullback and confirmation. More specifically, if BTC can consolidate and stabilize with lower volume in the 77,500 to 78,500 range, and it doesn’t break for two consecutive hours, then—only consider testing with a small position, and don’t let your position size exceed 30%. If instead it directly breaks below 77,000 with strong volume selling, then this rebound is just giving you an opportunity to escape—don’t catch falling knives.
When it’s rising, don’t get red-eyed. When it’s falling, don’t get itchy to act. This market isn’t short of opportunities—it’s short of the capital in your account. Want to chat?
People have already seen how BTC correlates with U.S. stocks over the past two years—don’t assume the crypto market can move independently. I’ve kicked around too many of these charts. What I fear most is when you see one big bullish candle and rush in, only to find out the main force is distributing right above your head.
At this position, there’s still a large pool of trapped longs between price and the previous high above. Downside-wise, around 78,000 support is only very thin. If you go all-in right now, and someone paints a fake breakout to trap you, you won’t even get a chance to run.
So I advise you: if you really want to trade, wait for a pullback and confirmation. More specifically, if BTC can consolidate and stabilize with lower volume in the 77,500 to 78,500 range, and it doesn’t break for two consecutive hours, then—only consider testing with a small position, and don’t let your position size exceed 30%. If instead it directly breaks below 77,000 with strong volume selling, then this rebound is just giving you an opportunity to escape—don’t catch falling knives.
When it’s rising, don’t get red-eyed. When it’s falling, don’t get itchy to act. This market isn’t short of opportunities—it’s short of the capital in your account. Want to chat?
