Aug 28 BTC early-morning analysis
Today, in our livestream, we successfully captured 3 waves. At the moment, the market is in a short-side phase; pullbacks are mainly for going long. This round of Bitcoin moved sharply from around $64,000 in the period around August 19 to above $80,000. The trigger point was a week of roughly a 25% surge. It highly overlaps with the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s August 19 announcement to expand the scale of long-term Treasury repo operations—raising the liquidity support repo cap for the 10–20 year and 20–30 year Treasury maturities from a maximum of $2.0 billion per transaction to a minimum of $4.0 billion, effective September 9. Long-dated repo operations directly suppress long-end yields, creating a relatively favorable macro environment for scarce assets such as Bitcoin and gold.
At the same time, renewed expectations of Fed rate hikes are forming a counterpull. The July FOMC meeting minutes show that most officials supported keeping the interest rate at 3.50%–3.75%, but three members favored a 25-basis-point hike. July’s PCE inflation rate was 3.7%, still far above the 2% target. As market expectations for further rate hikes heat up, it weakens the yield-lowering environment that previously helped drive the Bitcoin rebound. Two opposing macro forces—bulls and bears—are currently in a tug-of-war. Personal suggestion from Yi Fan: Short around 80,800–81,950, with targets around 79,500–78,200.
Today, in our livestream, we successfully captured 3 waves. At the moment, the market is in a short-side phase; pullbacks are mainly for going long. This round of Bitcoin moved sharply from around $64,000 in the period around August 19 to above $80,000. The trigger point was a week of roughly a 25% surge. It highly overlaps with the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s August 19 announcement to expand the scale of long-term Treasury repo operations—raising the liquidity support repo cap for the 10–20 year and 20–30 year Treasury maturities from a maximum of $2.0 billion per transaction to a minimum of $4.0 billion, effective September 9. Long-dated repo operations directly suppress long-end yields, creating a relatively favorable macro environment for scarce assets such as Bitcoin and gold.
At the same time, renewed expectations of Fed rate hikes are forming a counterpull. The July FOMC meeting minutes show that most officials supported keeping the interest rate at 3.50%–3.75%, but three members favored a 25-basis-point hike. July’s PCE inflation rate was 3.7%, still far above the 2% target. As market expectations for further rate hikes heat up, it weakens the yield-lowering environment that previously helped drive the Bitcoin rebound. Two opposing macro forces—bulls and bears—are currently in a tug-of-war. Personal suggestion from Yi Fan: Short around 80,800–81,950, with targets around 79,500–78,200.
