The most important event of the year for the Fed is tomorrow: Kevin Warsh’s first speech at Jackson Hole 🇺🇸⚠️
Every August, all of Wall Street forgets about the FOMC and watches the rhetoric at the Jackson Hole summit. The tone of just this one speech usually sets the direction for markets for the months ahead.
Key takeaways and historical snapshot:
• A soft tone (dovish): Pushes stocks and crypto higher.
• A hawkish tone: Bond yields jump, the dollar strengthens, and a mass rush of capital out of risk assets begins.
Looking at the last four years, in 3 out of 4 cases the market rose or stayed in the green:
• 2022 (hawkish Powell): The S&P 500 fell by -13% over the next 19 days.
• 2023 (moderate Powell): The index was essentially flat (down less than 1%).
• 2024 (dovish Powell): The S&P 500 added +1.48%.
• 2025 (dovish Powell): A strong rally at +4.44%.
But this year the game is being played by new rules. For the first time, Kevin Warsh is standing at the podium. He doesn’t yet have a public track record on this topic, which makes forecasting his rhetoric and the market’s reaction completely unpredictable.#FOMC
#DollarPostsBiggestGainInNearlyFourWeeks
#BestBuyQ2RevenueTopsEstimatesLiftsOutlook
$BTC
$NVDAB
$SOL
Every August, all of Wall Street forgets about the FOMC and watches the rhetoric at the Jackson Hole summit. The tone of just this one speech usually sets the direction for markets for the months ahead.
Key takeaways and historical snapshot:
• A soft tone (dovish): Pushes stocks and crypto higher.
• A hawkish tone: Bond yields jump, the dollar strengthens, and a mass rush of capital out of risk assets begins.
Looking at the last four years, in 3 out of 4 cases the market rose or stayed in the green:
• 2022 (hawkish Powell): The S&P 500 fell by -13% over the next 19 days.
• 2023 (moderate Powell): The index was essentially flat (down less than 1%).
• 2024 (dovish Powell): The S&P 500 added +1.48%.
• 2025 (dovish Powell): A strong rally at +4.44%.
But this year the game is being played by new rules. For the first time, Kevin Warsh is standing at the podium. He doesn’t yet have a public track record on this topic, which makes forecasting his rhetoric and the market’s reaction completely unpredictable.#FOMC
#DollarPostsBiggestGainInNearlyFourWeeks
#BestBuyQ2RevenueTopsEstimatesLiftsOutlook
$BTC
$NVDAB
$SOL
