Multiple Federal Reserve officials collectively issued hawkish signals. It is widely believed that inflation is relatively sticky, and that the current interest-rate constraints are not strong enough. A rate hike later on cannot be ruled out. With the Jackson Hole meeting drawing near, market uncertainty is rising. BTC is a high-volatility risk asset and is highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations and USD liquidity.
In the short term, the officials’ collective hawkish stance will likely suppress market expectations for rate cuts, causing U.S. Treasury yields to strengthen. BTC would face pressure, and the market may see choppy pullbacks and periods of deleveraging and clearing of leveraged positions. Funds are likely to take a wait-and-see approach ahead of time, pending the outcome of Waller’s Friday remarks.
Consider three scenarios:
1. Waller’s remarks are hawkish: reemphasize stubborn inflation and keep the option of rate hikes. BTC would most likely fall quickly, with a clear pullback;
2. Neutral wording (most likely): stress data dependency, provide no clear indication of rate hikes. The market would trade in a wide-range, choppy manner, digesting prior expectations;
3. Dovish wording: acknowledge improving inflation, ease concerns about future rate hikes. Risk sentiment would recover, and BTC would have the potential to break upward.
Overall, ahead of Friday’s keynote address, BTC is likely to remain range-bound and slightly weak. Volatility will likely expand significantly. It is not suitable to make heavy directional bets; focus on monitoring the policy wording in Waller’s speech.
#美元创近四周最大涨幅 #XRP领跌加密市场跌近7% $BTC #btc走勢
In the short term, the officials’ collective hawkish stance will likely suppress market expectations for rate cuts, causing U.S. Treasury yields to strengthen. BTC would face pressure, and the market may see choppy pullbacks and periods of deleveraging and clearing of leveraged positions. Funds are likely to take a wait-and-see approach ahead of time, pending the outcome of Waller’s Friday remarks.
Consider three scenarios:
1. Waller’s remarks are hawkish: reemphasize stubborn inflation and keep the option of rate hikes. BTC would most likely fall quickly, with a clear pullback;
2. Neutral wording (most likely): stress data dependency, provide no clear indication of rate hikes. The market would trade in a wide-range, choppy manner, digesting prior expectations;
3. Dovish wording: acknowledge improving inflation, ease concerns about future rate hikes. Risk sentiment would recover, and BTC would have the potential to break upward.
Overall, ahead of Friday’s keynote address, BTC is likely to remain range-bound and slightly weak. Volatility will likely expand significantly. It is not suitable to make heavy directional bets; focus on monitoring the policy wording in Waller’s speech.
#美元创近四周最大涨幅 #XRP领跌加密市场跌近7% $BTC #btc走勢
