$BTC $DOGE $ETH 🔥🔥 When Dangbei Sense’s “short-bond-for-long-bond swap” meets AI “money-snatching” and sticky inflation
This round of synchronized gains in BTC and gold is indeed driven by the market pricing in “a kind of QE under fiscal dominance.” Bettz tries to use the TGA or issue short-term bonds to repurchase long-term bonds—at its core, aiming to suppress long-end yields. Although the scale is negligible, expectations have already been fully priced in.
However, the PCE remains stubborn, with the core year-over-year rate still at 3.3%, putting the Fed in a bind. The market currently does not bet heavily on the odds of a rate hike in September, but officials like Collins have already said: if inflation does not show sustained decline, rate hikes remain on the table. Once a real hike happens, higher short-term yields will directly drain liquidity, thereby puncturing BTC’s rally logic based on “easing expectations.”
Even more troublesome is “AI money-snatching”—tech giants have flooded the market with tens of thousands of billions in corporate bonds this year, competing with U.S. Treasuries for long-term capital. In the past, big companies were demanders of long-term bonds; now they’ve become suppliers, crowding out the space Treasuries can absorb, making long-term yields especially sensitive to supply shocks.
The core contradiction is right here: the Fed can’t easily ease because inflation won’t come down, while the Treasury can’t bear a surge in long-term yields. In the end, the only buyer is the Fed—but that would be a “last resort” card. Before that, BTC will most likely keep bouncing back and forth with macro players’ expectations, with extremely high volatility. If you can’t make sense of it, that’s fine—this situation is truly unprecedented.
#韩国央行加息25基点至3% #比特币升破8万美元创三月新高
This round of synchronized gains in BTC and gold is indeed driven by the market pricing in “a kind of QE under fiscal dominance.” Bettz tries to use the TGA or issue short-term bonds to repurchase long-term bonds—at its core, aiming to suppress long-end yields. Although the scale is negligible, expectations have already been fully priced in.
However, the PCE remains stubborn, with the core year-over-year rate still at 3.3%, putting the Fed in a bind. The market currently does not bet heavily on the odds of a rate hike in September, but officials like Collins have already said: if inflation does not show sustained decline, rate hikes remain on the table. Once a real hike happens, higher short-term yields will directly drain liquidity, thereby puncturing BTC’s rally logic based on “easing expectations.”
Even more troublesome is “AI money-snatching”—tech giants have flooded the market with tens of thousands of billions in corporate bonds this year, competing with U.S. Treasuries for long-term capital. In the past, big companies were demanders of long-term bonds; now they’ve become suppliers, crowding out the space Treasuries can absorb, making long-term yields especially sensitive to supply shocks.
The core contradiction is right here: the Fed can’t easily ease because inflation won’t come down, while the Treasury can’t bear a surge in long-term yields. In the end, the only buyer is the Fed—but that would be a “last resort” card. Before that, BTC will most likely keep bouncing back and forth with macro players’ expectations, with extremely high volatility. If you can’t make sense of it, that’s fine—this situation is truly unprecedented.
#韩国央行加息25基点至3% #比特币升破8万美元创三月新高