This Federal Reserve message is still worth taking seriously.
Schmidt’s point is actually very simple:
Rates may still not be high enough, and inflation hasn’t yet fallen to the 2% target—so don’t rush into thinking about rate cuts. They may even continue to tighten.
This is clearly different from what the market was expecting in terms of a September rate cut not long ago. And the July PCE data served as another reminder: inflation year-over-year is 3.7%, still well above the Fed’s 2% goal.
For retail investors, you don’t really need to dig too deep. The logic is one simple line:
The stronger the rate-cut expectations → the better the market liquidity outlook → risk assets like BTC and the stock market are more likely to rise.
Conversely:
If inflation won’t come down → rate-cut expectations cool → U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar strengthen → risk assets face more pressure.
So don’t get too excited just because $BTC has been up or down in the short term.
What really matters is whether the Fed has started—at some point—shifting back to the question of whether rate cuts are still necessary.
If that expectation truly changes, the market impact could be even bigger than a single surprise data release.
The mistake we’re most prone to make is this: when the market falls, we start to get scared; when the market rises, we start to fall into #FOMO.
In this kind of macro environment, what’s more important is not to deploy all your position size. Keep some ammunition. If the trend keeps rising, there may still be opportunities to chase.
But if rate-cut expectations continue to be undermined, at least you’ll still have chips in hand to respond.
Never treat rate cuts as something that’s guaranteed to happen.
#BTC #美联储 #宏观
Schmidt’s point is actually very simple:
Rates may still not be high enough, and inflation hasn’t yet fallen to the 2% target—so don’t rush into thinking about rate cuts. They may even continue to tighten.
This is clearly different from what the market was expecting in terms of a September rate cut not long ago. And the July PCE data served as another reminder: inflation year-over-year is 3.7%, still well above the Fed’s 2% goal.
For retail investors, you don’t really need to dig too deep. The logic is one simple line:
The stronger the rate-cut expectations → the better the market liquidity outlook → risk assets like BTC and the stock market are more likely to rise.
Conversely:
If inflation won’t come down → rate-cut expectations cool → U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar strengthen → risk assets face more pressure.
So don’t get too excited just because $BTC has been up or down in the short term.
What really matters is whether the Fed has started—at some point—shifting back to the question of whether rate cuts are still necessary.
If that expectation truly changes, the market impact could be even bigger than a single surprise data release.
The mistake we’re most prone to make is this: when the market falls, we start to get scared; when the market rises, we start to fall into #FOMO.
In this kind of macro environment, what’s more important is not to deploy all your position size. Keep some ammunition. If the trend keeps rising, there may still be opportunities to chase.
But if rate-cut expectations continue to be undermined, at least you’ll still have chips in hand to respond.
Never treat rate cuts as something that’s guaranteed to happen.
#BTC #美联储 #宏观
