First, take a look at a rare scene

Since the end of June, gold, copper, and crude oil have strengthened in tandem—unusually at the same time. The maximum gains within their ranges have been about 17%, 9%, and 30%, respectively. By late August, the gold price briefly touched $4,700 per ounce, Brent crude had moved back to around $90 per barrel, and copper prices were nearing their historic highs.

In a deep-dive report dated August 26 from its macro team, Dongwu Securities put it quite well: this market run isn’t simply a broad-based commodity rally. Instead, it’s the combined result of four factors being turned on at the same time—an increase in the geopolitical risk premium, a period of improvement in overseas liquidity, worsening global supply-chain fragility, and a weakening of dollar credit.

However, the three “brothers” appear to move in sync, but the real core drivers behind them are not the same. Once we make that clear first, it will be easier to understand the persistence later.

The base color of the resonance: the dollar weakens in phases

Since the late June period, the dollar has weakened in phases, alongside improved overseas liquidity, providing a common macro backdrop for the three major assets.

At the end of July, the U.S.-Japan joint intervention in exchange rates, together with the market’s convergence in expectations for Fed rate hikes, shifted the foundation for dollar strength into weakening. Meanwhile, concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability rose and the Fed’s independence came under scrutiny, further reinforcing gold’s safe-haven and monetary characteristics.

Dig deeper: blockages in the Strait of Hormuz and frequent disruptions in major mining regions have fully exposed the fragility of global energy and industrial metals supply chains; and the weakening of dollar credibility has also provided longer-term pricing support for gold and resource commodities.

So, in one sentence, what does each of the three “brothers” trade:

Gold—trades dollar credibility and safe-haven attributes;

Copper—trades supply constraints and the premium on strategic resources;

Crude oil—trades geopolitical risk and supply disruptions.

Different drivers, but the same source of the macro base color. That’s also why this round can resonate.

Gold: de-dollarization + a convergence with fiscal pressure; target around 5000

After a major adjustment in the first half of the year, gold has resumed strength. On August 5, it broke out of the low-level trading range; on August 21, the weekly MACD confirmed a golden cross. As of August 22, the volatility of gold ETFs was 27%, and market crowding had not clearly heated up yet—suggesting sentiment has not reached “overheated” levels.

One detail worth noting: with U.S. Treasury yields rising, this time it did not suppress gold prices. That implies something in reverse—U.S. fiscal stress and elevated interest expense are eroding dollar credibility, thereby strengthening gold’s monetary attributes and its de-dollarization logic.

A few sets of numbers make clear how big the pressure is:

U.S. fiscal deficits in 2024 and 2025 are $1.83 trillion and $1.78 trillion, respectively. Interest expenditure accounts for 55% and 48%, respectively—both higher than the defense spending share;

For fiscal year 2026 as of June, the cumulative fiscal deficit has already reached $1.37 trillion.

Central bank gold purchases are also continuously providing support. In July, China’s central bank increased its gold reserves by 640,000 ounces to 76.08 million ounces, the largest single-month increase since November 2024. Since Q3, SPDR Gold ETF holdings also shifted from net selling to a rise, reaching 1,047 tons by August 21.

Based on this, the report judges that U.S. fiscal pressure, de-dollarization, central bank gold buying, and fund inflows jointly support gold’s medium-to-long-term outlook; in an optimistic scenario, gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce.

Copper: inventory mismatches created by tariff expectations, with supply constraints continuing to strengthen

Copper prices have risen by about 15% since the start of the year, at one point nearing $14,500 per ton. In this rally, U.S. tariff expectations are a key driver.

The U.S. imposes a 50% tariff on copper semi-finished products; refined copper is temporarily exempt, but there is a plan to add 15% in 2027 and raise it to 30% in 2028. This tariff expectation directly pushes copper resources to move to the U.S. ahead of schedule:

In July, the quantity of U.S.-bound copper imports arriving exceeded 200,000 tons, a monthly high not seen since 2014;

COMEX inventories rose to 740,000 tons, a record historical high.

In contrast, inventories in non-U.S. markets keep falling—LME inventories fell to 238,400 tons, and SHFE inventories fell to 411,000 tons. On August 17, the LME spot copper treatment charge/rental spread expanded noticeably and a backwardated structure appeared, sending a clear signal that near-term supply is tightening.

Stress is also evident at the mining end. Chile’s copper output in Q2 fell 7.7% year-on-year, and Codelco cut its production target. In August, the copper concentrate processing fee TC dropped to -$181 per dry ton—shortage of ore has already forced smelters to scramble for resources.

With multiple supports from inventory mismatches, disturbances at the mining end, and demand from AI and new energy, the report believes that: before U.S. tariffs take effect, copper prices are unlikely to undergo a deep pullback.

Crude oil: both inventories and supply tighten, so the mid-point is unlikely to shift downward from June to August. Brent also charts a sharp V-shaped move: after the U.S.-Iran temporary understanding in June, it fell to about $68 per barrel; with the situation tense again in July, oil prices rebounded to around the $90 per barrel mark.

Supply contraction is becoming the most important support for oil prices. Since the outbreak of the conflict, globally observable crude oil inventories have cumulatively fallen by about 410 million barrels; in July alone, they decreased by 69 million barrels. By end-July, inventories were down to less than 7.9 billion barrels, the lowest level since April 2025.

U.S. SPR inventories have also dropped to their lowest level since 1982. As of August 21, SPR was only about 290 million barrels, down sharply from the 413 million barrel peak in April.

The Strait of Hormuz is similarly severely affected. Before the conflict, about 120 vessels passed per day; after the conflict, that fell to fewer than 10 vessels. In early August, the daily average number of tankers passing was only about 1.25. OPEC’s crude output in July was about 23.63 million barrels per day, nearly 5 million barrels lower than before the conflict.

The IEA expects that the crude oil market deficit will reach 1.8 million barrels per day in Q3 2026. Although full-year demand is expected to decline by 1.56 million barrels per day, tight inventories and constrained supply still lock in the downside room for oil prices.

The report presents three tiers of scenarios for crude oil:

The long standoff between the U.S. and Iran: Brent holds in a $80–$90 per barrel range;

Two key straits’ blockades exceed expectations: the possibility of oil prices setting new highs cannot be ruled out;

The U.S. and Iran restart effective negotiations: geopolitical premium falls, oil prices move downward, but low inventories limit the decline; Brent may fall to around $70 per barrel.

How to view the persistence of the “resonance”

Back to the original question—can the gold-copper-oil resonance last?

Once you gather the clues above, the answer is actually quite clear:

The “base color” and the “driving force” of the resonance are two layers. The base color is the dollar weakening in phases + improved liquidity. This part is a medium-to-short-term factor; it will ebb and flow with the timing of Japan-U.S. interventions and volatility in expectations for the Federal Reserve. The driver, meanwhile, is each asset’s own fundamentals—gold’s fiscal and de-dollarization logic, copper’s tariffs and constraints at the mining end, and oil’s geopolitics and low inventories. These are medium-to-long-term factors and won’t disappear on their own in the short term.

So my understanding is: the synchrony of the resonance may loosen in phases (for example, when the dollar rebounds in a given month or when shipping through a strait resumes), but the three separate medium-to-long-term logics have not finished playing out. The truly important inflection point to watch is whether there is a substantive repair to the dollar’s credibility (rebuilding fiscal discipline or restoring Fed independence), while at the same time geopolitical risks see a substantive decline—so far, there are no signs of either.

For portfolio allocation: although the three “brothers” resonate, their timing and sensitivity are different—gold has a more medium-to-long-term base-position characteristic; copper is dominated by the tariff schedule; and oil is most sensitive to geopolitical events. To get on board, don’t treat them as one thing that rises and falls together—separate which segment of opportunity you’re actually earning from.