$AVAX spot trading has cooled, but Square's RWA narrative is getting increasingly crowded, and the data has not created a sustained divergence. Spot trading only reaches 38.7% of the one-year benchmark, and the #AVAX topic still has about 193 million views.

Over the past 30 days, Avalanche's TVL has grown by 12.6% and chain fees by 6.0%, but stablecoin supply has fallen by 1.5%, and 90-day TVL is still down 21.2%. Fee burning offers a valuable value-capture pathway, but the circulating supply is only 64.8% of the upper limit of 720 million, and new staking rewards are still present, with no historical valuation percentile.

There is currently no trading edge. Reassess only if stablecoin supply, chain fees, and TVL expand in sync for 60 consecutive days and Square's 90D historical benchmark is brought up to par; if the three weaken in sync, the long-term divergence thesis is negated.

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