#美元创近四周最大涨幅
US dollar posts its biggest rise in nearly four weeks: What’s the core driver?
The US dollar has suddenly strengthened recently, but the main reason isn’t a flight-to-safety move. Instead, sticky US inflation has pushed up expectations for further Fed rate hikes again.
PCE inflation remains elevated: US July PCE rose 3.7% year over year, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Market expectations for another rate hike before year-end have been heating up.
US Dollar Index nearing 99: The US Dollar Index recorded its largest single-day gain in nearly four weeks on Wednesday, then traded sideways around 99.
US Treasury yields rebound: After the inflation data was released, Treasury yields moved higher, further boosting the appeal of US dollar assets.
Jackson Hole meeting as the next catalyst: The market is waiting for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech, focusing on whether it will signal a more hawkish policy stance.
What does this mean for the market?
Short term: The USD is bullish → pressure on gold and cryptocurrencies.
Of particular note: Gold had already surged to around $4,700. After the USD and real yields strengthened together, gold saw a clear pullback.
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1, After 1,248 stabilizes, the trend turns upward—go long.
Stop loss: 1,233
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Target 2: Near 1,335—trim positions or take profit

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