🚨Inflation’s “three-pronged fires” are here: AI, tariffs, energy!
Charles Schwab Research Center believes the key factors driving inflation in the U.S. right now are mainly centered on AI spending, tariffs, and energy. In particular, due to tariffs, the decline in prices for goods that was common in the past is becoming less frequent, and even durable goods are starting to feel the pressure.
📌My take:
Inflation is no longer as simple as just “too much demand.”
AI is burning through cash, boosting demand across supply chains such as chips, data centers, and energy;
Tariffs are raising the costs of certain goods;
Energy prices will also directly affect the entire economy.
And as for the services sector, it still has resilience—for now, it has become an important pillar supporting economic growth.
🔥So what the market will truly be watching next is:
Can AI spending stay sustained? Will tariff-related costs continue to pass through? Will energy prices rise again?
If these three variables all start heating up at the same time, the Fed’s room to cut rates will naturally be compressed.
Conversely, if inflation gradually cools, risk assets may finally get a chance to breathe.
In today’s market, the surface focus is on PCE data—but underneath, it’s really a contest over what the Fed will do next.
👀Where inflation goes, interest rates will follow; and when interest rates change, global capital flows may shift accordingly.#中国反对美国拟加征7.5%关税 #美元创近四周最大涨幅 #伊朗称与阿曼霍尔木兹协议未敲定
Charles Schwab Research Center believes the key factors driving inflation in the U.S. right now are mainly centered on AI spending, tariffs, and energy. In particular, due to tariffs, the decline in prices for goods that was common in the past is becoming less frequent, and even durable goods are starting to feel the pressure.
📌My take:
Inflation is no longer as simple as just “too much demand.”
AI is burning through cash, boosting demand across supply chains such as chips, data centers, and energy;
Tariffs are raising the costs of certain goods;
Energy prices will also directly affect the entire economy.
And as for the services sector, it still has resilience—for now, it has become an important pillar supporting economic growth.
🔥So what the market will truly be watching next is:
Can AI spending stay sustained? Will tariff-related costs continue to pass through? Will energy prices rise again?
If these three variables all start heating up at the same time, the Fed’s room to cut rates will naturally be compressed.
Conversely, if inflation gradually cools, risk assets may finally get a chance to breathe.
In today’s market, the surface focus is on PCE data—but underneath, it’s really a contest over what the Fed will do next.
👀Where inflation goes, interest rates will follow; and when interest rates change, global capital flows may shift accordingly.#中国反对美国拟加征7.5%关税 #美元创近四周最大涨幅 #伊朗称与阿曼霍尔木兹协议未敲定
